MELBOURNE - The U.S. proposal to build a missile defense shield would abrogate the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed in 1972 with the Soviet Union, now Russia. It would also destroy moves toward further nuclear disarmament that ought to be the major priority of nuclear weapon states. There is a delicate balance between America and Russia. Both are committed to reduce their nuclear arsenals. The American missile defense project, if it goes ahead, would upset that balance. If Washington were prepared to establish such a shield for all nuclear weapon states, it would be a different matter, but that is not the plan.

In response, Russia would undertake further development of its nuclear weapons and would almost certainly expand its nuclear armory. China would do the same, and so would India and Pakistan.

The United States seeks to justify a missile defense shield by the need to be protected against ''rogue'' states, recently relabeled ''states of concern'' by the Clinton administration. I do not believe that assertion. Countries or groups hostile to the United States would be far more likely to smuggle a weapon of mass destruction into New York on a cargo ship than to fire a missile at the city. It would be easier and more effective.

The real reason for Washington's interest in a missile defense shield is the widely held belief in the U.S. policy-making environment that war with China will one day be inevitable. I do not say that American policymakers want such a war. But they do not know how to avoid it.

Such a war could occur if Taiwan determined to become independent and gained U.S. support. Such a claim by Taiwan would have significant attraction for the democratic left and for conservatives in the Republican Party.

Since the end of the Cold War the United States has become more assertive, more convinced in its righteousness and more determined that other countries accept its point of view. In a desire to achieve security for themselves, Americans are now putting world stability and security at risk.

Malcolm Fraser, a former prime minister of Australia, commenting for the Herald Tribune.

Home Page