MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's Security Council will advise President Vladimir
Putin to cut land-based nuclear missiles and merge the rest of the Strategic
Rocket Forces with the air force, a Defense Ministry source said on Thursday.
The source told Reuters the move was part of a restructuring of Russia's
armed forces that would start in 2001 and result in three branches of the
military -- land, sea and air -- rather than four, including the Strategic Rocket Forces.
Putin's advisory but influential Security Council meets on Friday to discuss
military reforms including the nuclear missile cuts and merger.
The move, if Putin agrees with it, would represent a lop-sided compromise in
an internal row and a major change in Russian strategic policy. It would
lead to much greater emphasis on the hitherto neglected submarine-based deterrent.
``The Strategic Rocket Forces will be merged with the air force and
silo-based missiles which become obsolete in 2003 will be scrapped,'' the source said.
Defense experts say Russia has about 750 intercontinental ballistic
missiles, most of them in silos or on mobile launchers. A few dozen are
railway-based. All but 20 were deployed more than a decade ago.
The overall number of warheads is about 3,500. A similar number are loaded
in submarine missiles and air-launched cruise missiles or bombs.
The land-based warheads could be cut as low as 1,500, the source said. That
would be in line with Russian proposals for START-3 arms treaty talks with the United States.
No Reshuffle Expected
The source said there would be no reshuffles in the upper echelons of the
armed forces. There has been speculation Putin might use the meeting to sack
Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev and the chief of General Staff, General
Anatoly Kvashnin, who have both been at daggers drawn over the plans for nuclear forces.
There will also be structural changes in the Strategic Rocket Forces --
which are responsible only for land-based missiles -- and savings will be
used to fund conventional ground forces which have been found wanting in the Chechnya war.
``We are not talking about liquidating the Strategic Rocket Forces or
denting Russia's nuclear shield, including its land-based component,'' the
first deputy chief of General Staff, Valery Manilov, told reporters.
Few would disagree the 1.2-million-strong armed forces are in poor shape --
low on cash, short of modern equipment and demoralized despite fighting
phrases from their military-minded president and continued domestic support
for the Chechnya war.
The differences arise when deciding how to improve things.
Compromise Found
Kvashnin has made clear he favored deep cuts in the Strategic Rocket Forces
and a merger with or even absorption into the air force. He wants more money for ground forces.
Sergeyev, a former missile commander, sees the rocket forces as a vital
deterrent umbrella and a guarantee that Russia retains a seat at the top
table of international powers.
He does not rule out some cuts but favors putting all legs of the formidable
if aging triad of nuclear weapons based on land, in submarines and aboard
planes under one separate command -- but not under the air force.
So the changes outlined by the source have a distinct whiff of compromise,
although Sergeyev has come off worse.
Further changes to the Security Council plans outlined by the source cannot
be excluded altogether.
``The range of views is impressive -- from threatening words about everyone
being sacked to more neutral talk about a compromise with everyone getting
less,'' wrote the newspaper Vremya Novostei, referring to speculation about the plans.
With only so much money around, something has to give.
To get a feel for the problem, consider the defense budget.
On Wednesday, President Clinton signed a $287.5 billion defense spending
bill for the fiscal year starting October 1 -- that is some $30 billion
bigger than Russia's entire gross domestic product. The Russian defense
budget is $4.5 billion on paper but far less in practice.
Putin is expected to agree to honor an earlier pledge to dedicate 3.5
percent of GDP to defense spending.
Russia has been struggling to reform its armed forces since the mid-1990s
but economic and political crises as well as two wars in Chechnya have made
the process at best intermittent.
(Additional reporting by Robert Eksuzyan)
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