SRIHARIHOTA, India (Reuters) - India entered an elite club of commercial satellite launching nations Wednesday when a rocket blasted off from a southern seaport with two foreign payloads.
U.S. rockets have suffered six serious failures in the last nine months, destroying or rendering useless billions of dollars worth of spy, picture-taking and communications satellites, and raising concerns that the nation lacks reliable access to Earth orbit.
Recent rocket failures
May 4: Second stage of a Delta III rocket fails, leaving a $150 million satellite stranded thousands of miles too low.
April 30: Titan rocket fails to place $800 million Milstar communications satellite into proper orbit.
April 27: Lockheed Martin Athena II rocket fails to place a commercial space-imaging satellite into polar orbit.
April 9: $250 million missile warning satellite is left stranded in the wrong orbit after upper stage booster failed on a Titan rocket.
Aug. 26, 1998: Delta III rocket explodes on its maiden flight, destroying a communications satellite. Steering system failure is blamed.
Aug. 12, 1998: Titan rocket carrying $1 billion classified military satellite explodes shortly after launch. An electrical short is blamed.
Titan IV Contractor: Lockheed Martin Payload capacity: 12,700 pounds
Delta III Contractor: Boeing Payload capacity: 8,400 pounds SOURCES: Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp.
The Pentagon will try again next month to test an anti-missile system to protect troops and bases against ballistic missiles being stockpiled by hostile forces. Officials have concluded that the failure of the last attempt, in March, was caused by a faulty thruster nozzle, The Washington Post reported. It said the prime contractor, Lockheed Martin, has been working feverishly to correct design flaws. The government assessed Lockheed $15 million after the test failure last month, which was the sixth consecutive failure for the system known as Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). It is intended to shoot down enemy missiles at the edge of space. The THAAD program has cost more than $3.2 billion. It is intended to protect troops against missiles that could carry nuclear, biological or chemical warheads. The new threat is from short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles that fly farther, faster and higher than the cheap and inaccurate Scuds that Iraq used in the 1991 Gulf War.
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (Reuters) - A Titan 4 rocket is set to launch a missile-warning satellite Friday in its first mission since an August 1998 billion-dollar failure, the U.S. Air Force said.
The Titan 4B, the most powerful unmanned U.S. rocket, was scheduled to lift off from Cape Canaveral Air Station on Florida's east coast at 11:33 a.m. EDT.....
The rocket will carry into orbit a $400 million Defense Support Program missile-warning satellite, built by TRW Inc. (NYSE:TRW - news)
It will join a constellation of satellites already in orbit that can detect ballistic missile launches and nuclear detonations worldwide.
FULL STORY at:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/sc/story.html?s=v/nm/19990409/sc/space_rocket_5.html
A US missile warning satellite launched by the troubled Titan rocket programme is in the wrong orbit, according to the US Air Force. The $250m Defence Support Programme satellite went up without a hitch from Cape Canaveral on Friday on board the unmanned Titan 4B rocket.
FULL STORY at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_316000/316520.stm
(IDG) -- The U.S. Space Command is planning a massive $1.8 billion upgrade project for the Cheyenne Mountain Operations Center, Colorado Springs, Colo., that will lay the systems integration groundwork for a future national missile defense system.
Industry sources expect the command to issue a solicitation in July for the Integrated Space Command and Control (ISC2) contract to provide hardware and software upgrades, future communications architecture planning and various information technology services to the Cheyenne Mountain complex, the location of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) network operations center. The contract is expected to be awarded in February 2000 and will span 15 years.
Known as the "Mountain," the Cheyenne Mountain complex collects data from a worldwide network of satellites, radar systems and other sensors and processes that data on sophisticated computer systems to warn of ballistic nuclear missile or air attacks against North America. In addition, the center will be the focal point for command and control of the Defense Department's future National Missile Defense program to intercept and destroy incoming missiles before they reach the United States.
FULL STORY at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_316000/316520.stm
SEATTLE (Reuters) - An international consortium led by Boeing Co. blasted its first rocket into space from a floating Pacific Ocean platform Saturday on a mission to test the novel technology for use in the commercial satellite market....
The three-stage rocket, built by Boeing's Russian and Ukrainian partners, lifted off at 5:30 p.m. PST from the Odyssey, a converted oil rig platform near the equator about 1,500 miles southeast of Hawaii....
The project had been dogged by concerns about the reliability of its launch vehicle, which includes Ukrainian-built Zenit first and second stages.
Zenit rockets have had a poor success rate in recent years, including a disastrous crash last September that destroyed 12 Globalstar communication satellites worth $190 million...
As a result, customers demanded Saturday's mission with a dummy payload, delaying Sea Launch's first commercial mission until at least August, nine months behind the original schedule.
The project, developed in four years for an estimated $500 million, also was delayed last year by U.S. charges that Boeing had improperly transferred military technology to its Russian and Ukrainian partners.
Boeing ultimately agreed to pay $10 million to settle civil charges but remains the subject of a federal grand jury investigation into the technology transfer.
The remote launch site avoids any risks associated with populated areas and takes advantage of the Earth's high rotational speed at the equator, which allows for heavier payloads, of up to five tons. Currently, only Europe's Arianespace program uses an equatorial satellite launch site, in French Guiana.
Sea Launch has firm launch commitments from Hughes Electronics Corp. and Loral Space and Communications Ltd. for 16 launches and initially hopes to launch six to eight rockets a year, a Boeing spokesman said. The rate is limited by the need for the launch platform, based in Long Beach, California, to propel itself out to the launch site and back for each mission in a 27-day round trip.
The 660-foot Sea Launch assembly and command ship, which accompanies the platform, can hold up to three rockets in its cargo bay, potentially allowing for a higher launch rate. But so far engineers have not determined whether they can safely transfer a rocket to the platform on the high seas.
In addition to Seattle-based Boeing, which owns a controlling 40 percent share of the project, the other partners are RSC Energia of Russia, KB Yuzhnoye/PO Yuzhmash of Ukraine and Kvaerner Maritime of Norway.
The State Department is quietly informing overseas embassies that, despite Senate approval of a bill to establish a national missile defense, the administration does not have to deploy such a system.
Two amendments added to the Senate bill last week prompted President Clinton to drop his veto threat and offer the administration a loophole to avoid deployment, according to an internal State Department cable obtained by The Washington Times.
The cable, sent March 19 to U.S. embassies in Moscow, Beijing and other capitals in Europe and Asia, directs U.S. officials there to "draw upon the materials contained herein in addressing this matter" with concerned foreign governments.
Many Republicans were surprised by last week's abrupt decision by Mr. Clinton and Senate Democrats to support the missile defense bill after years of opposition. Democrats fear deployment of a national missile defense system might upset arms-control efforts.
"The administration is purposely distorting the actions taken by the Senate on this vital legislation," Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott told The Washington Times. "What's worse, this cable seems to encourage our embassies around the world to launch a disinformation campaign about the bill."
The cable states the Clinton administration has set up four roadblocks to deploying a national missile defense (NMD) that remain unaffected by the Senate bill. However, Mr. Clinton is willing to sign the legislation anyway.
The National Missile Defense Act states simply that a limited and effective defense of U.S. territory will be built as soon as "technologically possible."
"I think it's a blatant effort to distort the true meaning of the bill," said Sen. Thad Cochran, Mississippi Republican and a sponsor of the legislation.
The missile defense bill was approved by the Senate on a 97-3 vote last week. The House passed a similar version, also last week, and a conference to work out differences will be held after Congress returns from its Easter recess.
One Senate amendment being cited by the administration cable states that a missile defense system will be subject to congressional authorizing and appropriating processes, as with any other weapons program.
The cable said the administration views that amendment as "underscoring that no deployment decision has been made." The second amendment urges continuing arms talks with the Russians and "confirms that U.S. policy with regard to the possible deployment of a limited NMD must take into account our objectives with regard to arms control."
Mr. Cochran angrily disagreed. The amendments are "superficial" and do not affect the bill's central statement of the need to deploy defenses as soon as technologically possible, he said.
"The administration is trying to make it appear that deployment of an NMD system is based upon agreement with the Russians," Mr. Cochran said. "The bill does say that we should continue to pursue arms reductions, but it doesn't say anything about whether they have to be successful."
Robert Bell, the White House National Security Council arms-control specialist, said the cable lays out the administration's view that the amendments fundamentally altered the main policy statement concerning deployment.
Mr. Bell said the bill includes language that links congressional authorization, funding and arms control directly to any deployment decision.
"By making it clear that deployment policy is subject to authorization and appropriation and making the president co-equal in the process, we believe the bill amendments made clear that there is no deployment decision," he said.
"We have our view, the Congress has its view, and we're entitled to our view," Mr. Bell said in an interview.
A Republican Senate aide said the administration's interpretation of the legislation "is about as credible as Al Gore's claim that he is a backwoodsman who invented the Internet." The aide said the language on funding merely states that, like all discretionary programs, missile defense will be funded annually.
"This bill makes a deployment decision. It does not make a production decision," the aide said. "With passage of the bill, there no longer is a question of whether a system will be deployed, only a question of when the technology is ready."
Regarding the cable's statement on "possible" deployment of a system, the aide said "there is nothing 'possible' about the deployment."
"It is a complete falsehood that the language of the second amendment forces consideration of U.S. 'objectives with regard to arms control' before deployment," he said. "This is pure administration spin."
The cable was signed by Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright and included a statement by Mr. Clinton issued after the bill was passed. Under a section labeled "White House points," the cable said one amendment means the "the president has not proposed that any funds be authorized or appropriated in fiscal year 2000 defense budget for NMD deployment."
According to the cable, the president will not request deployment funds unless the missile threat has "materialized as quickly as we now expect it will," if the technology works and is affordable, and if such a defense does not conflict with arms control considerations.
Regarding the latter, the White House will only deploy a missile defense after determining how deploying a missile defense system affects "our objectives with regard to achieving further reductions in strategic nuclear arms under START two and START three" --strategic arms reduction talks agreements with Russia.
The START II arms treaty has not been ratified by Russia's parliament and START III negotiations are planned if Moscow approves the earlier treaty.
The cable states that the White House views the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, which outlaws defending the entire United States from missile attack, is "of fundamental significance" to reaching START arms agreements.
According to the cable, "If asked 'Does this mean the administration will hold NMD hostage to the ABM Treaty?', embassy officials should respond that the treaty is viewed as 'the cornerstone of strategic stability.'"
"At the same time, the administration has also made clear that it will not give Russia -- or any other state -- a veto over any missile defense deployment decision that it believes is vital to our national security interests," the cable said.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congress has put the Pentagon on a crash course to building a multibillion dollar defense against missile attacks on the United States.
But will the system work?
Even the Pentagon, which has spent about $50 billion on missile defense work over the past three decades, admits it doesn't know. After six more years and an additional $10 billion, it hopes to be able to answer yes.
To understand the uncertainty facing this suddenly popular project, which the Pentagon calls National Missile Defense, consider that the high-tech rocket that would shoot down an incoming missile has not been tested. The first test is due this summer, and the final one not until 2003.
The missile interceptor is "the least mature element" of the defensive system, Air Force Lt. Gen. Lester Lyles, director of the Pentagon office coordinating the project, told Congress in February.
If the tests prove successful, the Pentagon intends to build 61 of these anti-missile missiles, he said. They would be placed at ground stations in either Alaska or North Dakota, possibly both.
The Senate voted 97-3 last week for a bill that declares the United States will build a missile defense "as soon as technologically possible." It set no target date.
On Thursday the House passed a similar bill that said: "It is the official policy of the United States to deploy a national missile defense." The Pentagon's timetable envisions an initial missile defense system ready for use by 2005. Defense Secretary William Cohen told Congress March 2 that the target date -- pushed back this year from 2003 -- still carries a "high risk" of failure.
That means the current $10 billion estimate for making the system ready for use in six years may be too low by billions.
The initial system could defend all 50 states, but only against a handful of long-range ballistic missiles fired from a potential enemy with a poorly developed missile force, such as North Korea.
It would have only "residual capabilities" against missiles fired by an established nuclear power like Russia or China, Lyles said. The established powers' missiles have more sophisticated means of overcoming a defense.
Administration officials emphasize that this anti-missile system will be a far cry from former President Reagan's unfulfilled vision of a "Star Wars" shield that could knock thousands of enemy missiles from the sky.
The Reagan plan included high-powered lasers based in space that would zap missiles in flight. Adapting that idea, the Air Force is working on an airborne laser that would be fired from an airplane to "kill" a hostile missile during its "boost phase," the earliest stage of flight. The airborne laser, however, is designed for use against shorter-range missiles, not as part of a national defense.
The national missile defense now on the drawing board would be based mostly on the ground. The only space-based element, at least initially, would be defense satellites that can detect the launching of a potentially hostile missile and alert ground-based radars of where the threatening missile is headed.
A "battle management center," probably at the Cheyenne Mountain air defense complex in Colorado, would evaluate options for shooting down the incoming missile. When the missile crossed into the range of ground-based early-warning radars, the radars would confirm flight and tracking information on the missile. That would allow battle "managers" to direct the launch of the interceptor rocket.
Sensors on the interceptor rocket would provide final, precise course corrections to enable the rocket's "kill vehicle" to slam directly into the target missile, destroying it and exploding its warhead.
Will it work?
"We can't afford to fail," Cohen said recently.
BEIJING (AP) -- China today criticized an anti-missile shield under study by the United States as a destabilizing system that would set back efforts for nuclear disarmament.
Reacting to U.S. congressional votes last week supporting a national missile defense system, Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi noted that "America has the largest and most sophisticated nuclear arsenal in the world."
Developing either the U.S.-wide shield, or a regional shield for East Asia that the United States and Japan are considering, would violate nuclear arms control and disarmament treaties, Sun said.
"This will directly affect the nuclear disarmament process and will exert far-reaching and extensive impact on the global strategic balance and stability of the 21st century," Sun said at a twice-weekly news briefing.
China counts on its limited nuclear arsenal as a deterrent to the United States and Russia. It fears a missile shield would strengthen U.S. pre-eminence in East Asia, spark an expensive arms race China might not win and encourage rival Taiwan to spurn reuniting with the mainland.
China has been attempting to develop smaller, more powerful warheads that could be grouped on one missile to try to overwhelm any U.S. missile shield.
Against that backdrop, U.S. politicians and media have alleged recently that China may have stolen secrets to a miniaturized warhead, the W-88.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun again denied the allegations as "groundless" and said they were made "out of ulterior motives."
Sun also denied a report in Newsweek magazine that China managed to acquire two unexploded U.S. cruise missiles from a raid on purported terrorist camps in Afghanistan last summer. He called the report "a fabrication."
(http://www.sunday-times.co.uk:80/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?1617548)
RUSSIA and China yesterday attacked America's plans to revive its "Star Wars" missile defence programme. A "Son of Star Wars" was passed swiftly in the House of Representatives last night by 317 votes to 105 - a day after being overwhelmingly endorsed by the Senate. The two Bills will now be combined and sent to President Clinton, who will sign the legislation, having withdrawn his earlier veto threat.
The speed with which Mr Clinton and his fellow Democrats have reached agreement with Republicans after years of partisan battling is a reflection of growing worries over the development of missile programmes in North Korea, Iran, Iraq and possibly other rogue states. The final blow came with revelations that China may have stolen US nuclear missile know-how.
The Senate, by 97 to three, committed America to deploy a defence against limited missile attacks "as soon as technologically possible". The Bill did not specify a time frame or costs, but the Pentagon envisages having radars to track incoming missiles, and land-based interceptor missiles to shoot them down, by 2005.
The defences would be a scaled-back version of the anti-missile umbrella based in space proposed 16 years ago by Ronald Reagan. His dream proved technically impossible and lost its purpose with the Cold War's end. The new proposal has revived Russian objections to Star Wars - that it would breach the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty agreed by Nixon and Brezhnev.
Both gambled that, if neither side had the means to defend its cities, neither would be the first to attack. In time, trust and confidence engendered by the ABM treaty led to the Start 1 and 2 agreements to reduce nuclear arsenals. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the Senate Bill would undermine arms control agreements and posed a serious threat to strategic stability. Russia has been resisting US proposals to amend the ABM treaty to allow limited missile defences.
To underline the point, the State Duma this week introduced a Bill making its ratification of Start 2 conditional on US adherence to the treaty. To placate Moscow, Democrats persuaded Republicans to add opaque language to the Senate Bill saying that America still supports arms control and that Son of Star Wars must be consistent with policies to cut Russia's nuclear stockpile.
China's misgivings are rooted in fears that similar technology will be used to protect Taiwan. Blunt opposition was expressed by Zhu Rongji, the Prime Minister.
MOSCOW (AP) - Russia and China on Thursday criticized the Senate's approval of a U.S. anti-missile defense system, saying the move would threaten the globe's strategic balance.
The bill overwhelmingly approved by the Senate on Wednesday commits the Pentagon to building a national defense against limited ballistic missile attack "as soon as technologically possible."
"That poses a serious threat to the whole process of nuclear arms control, as well as strategic stability, for which major international agreements have been worked out for decades," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
The U.S. bill was based on a new assessment of the threat of attack from countries such as Iran, Iraq and North Korea.
In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said the measure is counterproductive for arms control and disarmament and will "have an impact on global strategic balance."
China fears the system could spark a costly arms race, would strengthen U.S. military alliances with Japan and South Korea and may be used to protect Taiwan, thereby obstructing reunification.
Russian officials have long expressed concern over the U.S. plan to develop anti-missile defenses that would violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union. They have resisted U.S. proposals about possibly amending the treaty to allow for limited missile defenses.
Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev sounded less harsh, expressing hope that the United States and Russia would be able to reach agreement on the anti-missile defenses.
"This issue must be studied seriously, and the Senate's decision analyzed, but I haven't lost hope," Sergeyev said, according to the Interfax news agency. "It's a flexible statement," he said of the Senate's move.
AUSTIN -- What newspapers around the nation need is a standing headline that starts, "In Reversal, Clinton Now . . ." and then they can just stick in the news o' the day. In his most spectacular and stupid reversal in years, Clinton has now endorsed "Star Wars," the old Reagan-era scheme to build an anti-missile system that will protect us from an all-out attack by the Soviet Union.
It was a terrible idea then, and as you may have noticed, the Soviet Union has been seriously defunct for seven years. The history of this turkey is so fantastic and so ridiculous that it would be hilarious if it weren't so expensive. We have already spent '$55 billion' on this pathetic piece of leftover Cold War lunacy, and absolutely none of it works, at any level, not to mention the rather glaring fact that we "don't need it."
Star Wars is the perfect case study for what's wrong with both American government and the American military. It has everything: special interests, campaign contributions, the military-industrial complex, supine politicians, lazy media, decisions being made solely for political calculation, decisions having nothing to do with national security, and a public to whom no one has bothered to tell the truth.
This is one of those hideous deals, like the savings-and-loan scandal, where you can see the disaster coming -- you can see it happening in front of your eyes -- and they still won't stop it. It's also like the backyard bomb-shelter program; a generation from now, when the whole thing is the most expensive white elephant of all time, some future Robert Scheer is going to have an absolutely wonderful time chronicling the perfect idiocy of everyone involved.
We don't have the Soviet Union to kick around anymore, so we are preparing to stop a missile attack by a "rogue nation" such as North Korea, Libya or Iran. Of course, none of them has the capacity to send up a missile that can actually reach the United States from their turf, but 'they might get it' -- according to the best estimates, in 10 to 20 years.
The Senate, with the new blessing from the White House, is going to approve building this missile defense system as soon as it is "technologically possible." Right.
Here's where we are so far:
Republican strategists plan to make missile defense "the most important issue of the 2000 election," according to Republican National Committee Chairman Jim Nicholson. According to `The Wall Street Journal,' Jack Kemp's Empower America group has targeted senators in certain states like Nevada with radio ads saying: "We are only one vote shy of ensuring the safety of you and your family. But the people standing in the way are Nevada's own senators." Ensuring the safety?!
If this program were in the corporate world, everyone associated with it would be fired. If it were a domestic spending program, Republicans would have torn it to shreds by now.
Where is the rest of the Pentagon on this gold-plated folly? The money it really needs for personnel and readiness is going into this black hole, and they'll never see a nickel of it; this 'is' the defense-spending increase.
Molly Ivins is a columnist for the 'Star-Telegram.'
You may write to her at:
1005 Congress Ave., Suite 920, Austin, TX 78701;
call her at (512) 476-8908;
or email her at mollyivins@star-telegram.com.
The Senate yesterday voted overwhelmingly to commit the United States to deploy a national anti-missile defense system after President Clinton and most Democrats dropped their long-standing opposition to the measure in return for a renewed commitment to arms control.
The legislation, which calls for deployment of a nationwide defense against limited ballistic missile attack "as soon as technologically possible," was approved, 97 to 3, with Democrats Richard J. Durbin (Ill.), Patrick J. Leahy (Vt.) and Paul D. Wellstone (Minn.) in dissent.
The vote constituted a political victory for Republicans, who had given it high priority as one of the first bills to be considered by both houses, although the edge was blunted somewhat by the administration's willingness to embrace the legislation with some changes.
The House is scheduled to take up a bill today that calls for a missile defense system but does not say when it should be deployed.
Neither bill authorizes a particular system, appropriates any money or sets specific target dates. But with Clinton's signature apparently assured, it asserts the country's determination to put the system -- a much scaled-back version of the "Star Wars" program advanced by President Ronald Reagan 16 years ago -- into operation sooner rather than later.
The administration had previously objected to the "technologically possible" language on grounds that other factors, including cost and broader policy interests, should be taken into consideration along with technological feasibility. Clinton endorsed a national missile defense in his State of the Union address, but administration officials had said they would recommend a veto because of the deployment mandate.
Development of the system has been plagued by technological problems, although the Army scored a major success earlier this week when one of its missiles, an advanced version of the Patriot system of Gulf War fame, rammed a target over New Mexico.
Despite Democrats' success in blocking the bill last year, the increasing Democratic as well as Republican support for it, reinforced by concern over recent missile tests by North Korea and Iran as well as allegations of nuclear espionage by China, contributed to pressure for a compromise. Democrats acknowledged they no longer had the 41 votes needed to block the measure by filibuster, and there was some doubt that a presidential veto could be sustained.
So a deal was struck Tuesday, with the administration dropping its veto threat after the Senate adopted several amendments, including one that was unanimously approved to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to negotiations on nuclear arms reductions with Russia.
Democrats argued that the bill as originally drafted would have violated restrictions on missile defenses in the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, threatened prospects for Russian Duma consideration of the START II weapons reduction treaty and complicated relations with Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov when he visits Washington next week.
Another key amendment made it clear that development of the system would be subject to regular congressional authorizations and appropriations.
While Republicans welcomed Clinton's support and most Democrats expressed relief that a compromise could be struck, Clinton took some shots from both sides. Wellstone said it was a "serious mistake" to support a bill that he described as a threat to arms control. Sen. Robert C. Smith (N.H.), who is running for the Republican presidential nomination next year, said Clinton's support "comes a little late and falls short," charging that the president is not doing enough to speed up a missile defense system.
BEIJING (AP) -- China today criticized a U.S. missile-defense bill that was passed with overwhelming support by the Senate.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said the missile defense programs the United States is considering are counterproductive for arms control and disarmament and will "have an impact on global strategic balance."
"China expresses its grave concern," Sun said.
The bill, passed by the Senate 97-3 on Wednesday, would commit the United States to building a national defense against limited ballistic missile attack "as soon as technologically possible." A version of the bill was scheduled to be taken up today by the House of Representatives.
The national missile defense program supported by the Senate would use similar technology to a theater missile defense system that the United States and Japan are studying for East Asia.
China fears the system could spark a costly arms race, would strengthen U.S. military alliances with Japan and South Korea and may be used to protect Taiwan, thereby obstructing reunification.
Over the past month, senior Chinese leaders have spoken out against the proposed regional anti-missile system. On Monday, Premier Zhu Rongji said China was firmly opposed to it.
China views the island of Taiwan as part of its territory and considers reunification a strategic goal. Taiwan and the mainland have been ruled separately since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON. The Clinton administration and Senate Democrats on Tuesday agreed to a popular missile-defense bill, reviving the prospect of former President Ronald Reagan’s "Star Wars" plan of the 1980s. Support for the Republican proposal, which until Tuesday the White House had threatened to veto, comes following congressional anger over the alleged theft of U.S. nuclear secrets by China.
THE 99-0 APPROVAL of the plan by Sens. Mary Landrieu, D-La., and Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, all but assured Senate passage of a measure that declares as U.S. policy deployment of a ballistic-missile defense as soon as technologically possible." A final vote was expected Wednesday.
VETO THREATENED
Democrats had blocked the measure from coming to the floor for years, and until Tuesday the Clinton administration had threatened a veto.
But the legislation was gaining considerable bipartisan support in the aftermath of ballistic missile tests by North Korea and Iran, and the disclosure that China had obtained technology from a U.S. nuclear laboratory that could have enabled it to build smaller, more efficient nuclear warheads.
"This bill recognizes the threat is real," Landrieu told the Senate. "It is clear to many of us that this threat is more real than ever before."
Tom Collina of the Union of Concerned Scientists, which opposes the legislation, called the compromise "sort of vacuous policy" that he said will do little except alienate China and Russia.
"The Democrats are running scared on this," he said. "The Republicans have had this issue for years. Now the threat has appeared and the Democrats were caught flat-footed."
The Landrieu-Snowe amendment commits the United States to a missile-defense system while recognizing the importance to negotiate with Moscow on reducing nuclear arsenals.
It was endorsed by both Sens. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., the chief sponsor of the overall legislation, and Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who had been its chief opponent. "It strengthens the bill," Cochran said. "Defenses and offensive reductions are not incompatible."
FULL STORY at: http://www.msnbc.com/news/250653.asp
MOSCOW -- (Reuters) A group of U.S. Congressmen held out hope on Tuesday that they had eased some of Russia's concerns about Washington's plans to build a Star Wars-style missile defense umbrella.
But after two hours of talks with Russian parliamentarians, the U.S. delegation acknowledged resistance remained to a project that is widely seen as one of the main problems dogging the increasingly difficult Russian-U.S. relationship.
Deputies in the Duma voiced fears that the missile defense system, which the House of Representatives votes on this week, will violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty which Moscow says is a cornerstone of global security.
"I would not say that the response was overwhelmingly receptive but I would not say that it was overwhelmingly negative either," said Curt Weldon, a Pennsylvania Republican who is also a member of the U.S. National Security Committee.
"I think there's concern that America may be attempting to negate the ABM treaty, which some in America would like to do immediately but others would not...We assured the Duma that that was not something we were attempting to do."
Weldon told a news conference that some Russian deputies had noted that observing the ABM treaty, which limits defenses against long-range missiles, was a vital condition for the Duma to ratify the START 2 nuclear arms reduction treaty.
The U.S. Senate has ratified START 2, which would cut each side's deployed nuclear warheads by up to two thirds from about 6,000 to no more than 3,500. But the Duma has held back, mainly for political reasons.
The Congressmen presented the Duma deputies with the outline of a report that is being presented to U.S. Congressmen and suggests the United States needs a missile defense system against threats from so-called rogue states such as North Korea and Iran.
They made clear the Duma's reaction would not sway the U.S. Congress in its vote, but said they hoped they had managed to explain why Washington had made such proposals and gone some way to calming Moscow's deepest security fears.
They said the new system is unlikely to be in place for several years and there was plenty of time for consultation.
In a sign the Duma may be ready to approve START 2, despite the fears for the ABM treaty, the chamber's managing council decided on Tuesday to ask President Boris Yeltsin formally to start the ratification process.
But a different signal came from Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, in charge of international relations at the Defense Ministry. He said the missile defense system would be a "very dangerous undertaking" involving changes to the ABM treaty.
"It is a unilateral, military pressure approach and we won't put up with it," he told Reuters in an interview.
WASHINGTON -- The White House and Senate Democrats Tuesday abandoned their longstanding opposition to a politically popular bill that calls for a national defense against limited long-range missile attacks.
The actions Tuesday all but assure overwhelming approval of the overall bill, which declares it to be United States policy to field a system against ballistic missile threats from rogue nations like North Korea and Iran as soon as "technologically possible."
The Administration dropped its threatened veto by President Clinton after the Senate passed a compromise amendment that Democrats say insures that any anti-missile system will not interfere with arms-control negotiations with Russia.
A final vote in the Senate is expected on Wednesday. The House is scheduled to debate and is likely to pass a similar, bipartisan bill on Thursday.
While neither bill authorizes a specific system or appropriates money to build it, the measures, if enacted, represent the Government's most forceful bipartisan support for the anti-missile policy.
Administration officials said that the Senate compromise defuses a potent national security campaign issue that Republicans could have wielded against Democrats, and tries to finesse a nettlesome issue before the Russian Prime Minister, Yevgeny M. Primakov, visits Washington next week.
Russia has long opposed an American anti-missile system, and conditioned further reductions in its nuclear arsenal on Washington's compliance with the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972.
Fielding an anti-missile system would require changes in that treaty, and Russia's leaders have expressed alarm over revived plans for such a system.
The compromise amendment, passed on a vote of 99 to 0, asserts that the United States will continue to negotiate cuts in Russia's nuclear forces, which Democrats interpret as language that is inextricably linked to the ABM treaty. But Republicans rejected any explicit language that would have tied deployment of an anti-missile system to adherence to the ABM treaty.
Critics said that by failing to incorporate language that would specifically require adherence to the treaty, the overall measure could face opposition from Russia's leaders and its Parliament, which is considering ratification of the second strategic arms reduction treaty, or Start 2.
But the White House appeared satisfied with the compromise. "If this were the final bill we'd accept it," Robert G. Bell, a senior national security official, said tonight.
Tuesday's action marks a significant departure for Senate Democrats, who twice last year narrowly blocked the same measure from coming to the Senate floor, and for the White House, which had wielded a veto threat, arguing that it was bad policy to deploy such a costly system based only on technological merit.
The measure has since picked up bipartisan support after missile tests by North Korea and Iran and recent disclosures that China may have stolen nuclear secrets from an American weapons laboratory that enhances China's long-range missiles.
"This bill recognizes the threat is real and that the world has changed," said Senator Mary L. Landrieu, a Louisiana Democrat who helped broker the compromise amendment with Senator Olympia J. Snowe, Republican of Maine.
In January, the Administration began to backpedal.
The White House announced it was asking Russia to renegotiate the ABM treaty to permit a limited national missile defense. At the same time, Defense Secretary William S. Cohen and the Joint Chiefs of Staff testified to Congress that the Administration was pledging $6.6 billion over the next six years to build a network of radars and interceptor missiles.
That commitment increased the budget for a national missile defense to $10.5 billion between now and 2005. The Administration has said it will decide next year whether to build an anti-missile system -- perhaps based in Alaska or North Dakota, or on ships -- that would be ready by 2005. That type of anti-missile system is a far cry from President Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" vision to use lasers in space as a shield against nuclear attack. Even on a smaller scale, the current program remains burdened by technological problems.
While senior American officials sought to calm Russian fears by asserting that the system was designed to protect against outlaw nations, Democratic unity in the Senate was fracturing so badly that Democratic leaders expressed concern they would not be able to muster the 34 votes to sustain a Presidential veto.
So Democrats negotiated two amendments that were general enough for Democrats to interpret them the way they wanted, and yet were not offensive to Republicans. The first, which also passed 99 to 0, assures that money to be spent on any missile system would go through the regular appropriations process. The second was the arms control amendment.
The amendments were embraced by Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi, the bill's chief Republican sponsor, and Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, one of its chief Democratic opponents.
WASHINGTON (AP) - The Clinton administration and Senate Democrats abandoned their opposition to a popular missile-defense bill Tuesday, agreeing to a compromise with Republicans designed to keep the system from interfering with arms-control efforts with Moscow.
The 99-0 acceptance of a proposal by Sens. Mary Landrieu, D-La., and Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, all but assured passage in the Senate of the overall measure that declares as U.S. policy deployment of a ballistic-missile defense as soon as "technologically possible."
A final vote is expected Wednesday on the overall bill.
Democrats had blocked the measure from coming to the floor for years, and until Tuesday the Clinton administration had threatened a veto.
But the legislation was gaining considerable bipartisan support in the aftermath of ballistic missile tests by North Korea and Iran and the disclosure that China had obtained technology from a U.S. nuclear laboratory that could have enabled it to build smaller, more efficient nuclear warheads.
"This bill recognizes the threat is real,'' Landrieu told the Senate. ''It is clear to many of us that this threat is more real than ever before."
The Landrieu-Snowe amendment still commits the United States to a missile-defense system while recognizing the importance to negotiate with Moscow on reducing nuclear arsenals.
It was embraced by both Sens. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., the chief sponsor of the overall legislation, and Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who had been its chief opponent. "It strengthens the bill," Cochran said. "Defenses and offensive reductions are not incompatible."
The Senate also adopted, 99-0, an amendment by Cochran and Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., that assures that the money to be spent on a missile-defense system would be determined each year, through normal congressional appropriations.
The two amendments "improve the bill to the point where that makes it possible for us to accept it," Bob Bell, a national security official at the White House, said in an interview. "The veto threat is withdrawn."
He said the administration hoped the House would adopt similar language Thursday when it takes up its version of the missile defense legislation.
Republican supporters cited reports of Chinese espionage at a U.S. weapons laboratory to buttress their case Tuesday.
"Today, the People's Republic of China has more than a dozen missiles aimed at American cities," said Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-La.
"China's nuclear espionage and the administration's lackluster response is bad enough," Lott added. He said when combined with earlier satellite transfers to China "it raises very serious questions not only about this administration's handling of China policy, but more broadly about whether it can be trusted to manage the nation's security affairs."
Lott called the lack of a national missile defense the nation's "Achilles' heel" and said he detected "movement in the Senate" to support the idea of building a defense system.
Sen. Tim Hutchinson, R-Ark., said the Los Alamos disclosures, along with U.S. satellite technology exports to China, are ''chilling, alarming."
"This is not only a serious breach in our national security but a quantum leap in the ability of the Chinese government to not only threaten the security of their neighbors in Asia but to ultimately threaten the security of American cities," Hutchinson said.
Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota accused Senate Republicans of overplaying the China card. "It's partisanship," Daschle told reporters. "Nobody's going to give away anything (to China), I assure you."
Monday's successful intercept of a target by the short-range Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) interceptor says nothing about the technical feasibility of the National Missile Defense [NMD] program, since the two programs use entirely different technologies. Brig. Gen. Daniel Montgomery, who directs the Army's missile defense programs, claimed that "The significance of this success can't be overstated." But it would be far too easy to overstate the significance of this test for the very different National Missile Defense.
The PAC-3 interceptor is intended to intercept slow moving short range missiles at ranges of a few dozen miles. The NMD interceptors will be required to intercept fast-moving long range missiles at ranges of well over a thousand miles. These very different requirements have led the two programs to use entirely different technologies.
The PAC-3 interceptor uses an on-board radar to find the incoming target at close range within the atmosphere. In contrast, the long range NMD interceptor uses a heat seeking telescope camera to find the incoming target at long range above the Earth's atmosphere.The PAC-3 radar lacks the range to do long-range interceptions, and the NMD heat seeker won't work within the atmosphere.
These very different technologies have had very different success rates in previous tests. Since testing started in 1986 of the predecessors of PAC-3, there have been a total of five successful intercepts of targets out of eight attempts [including Monday's test]. This success rate of better than 60% compares very favorably with the dismal failure rate of the NMD interceptor technology, which has failed to intercept a target in 13 of the 15 attempts since 1982.
So why not just use PAC-3 for National Missile Defense? The short-range PAC-3 interceptor, with its short-range radar, can only defend a few hundred square miles. In contrast to the two bases and two hundred interceptors planned for NMD, a national defense using PAC-3 could require thousands of bases and many tens of thousands of interceptors to defend the entire country.
An Army missile rammed into a test target high over New Mexico yesterday, marking an important success for the Pentagon's much-troubled effort to develop weapons against ballistic missile attack, defense officials said.
The intercept, by an improved version of the Patriot system, followed a series of failed attempts in other Pentagon programs to get a surface-launched missile to find and slam into a target missile speeding across the sky.
This "hit-to-kill" concept is at the core of Defense Department plans to construct a national system for protecting the United States against long-range missile attack. While the advanced Patriot system is intended for the more limited purpose of guarding troops in the field against short-range missiles such as Iraqi Scuds, military authorities declared that yesterday's hit will have wider consequences for even more ambitious systems by demonstrating that "hit-to-kill" can work.
"The significance of this success can't be overstated," said Brig. Gen. Daniel Montgomery, who oversees the Army's missile defense programs. "This certainly moves us well down the road of saying we can make these systems work."
Still, the $6.5 billion Patriot program, like the handful of other land- and sea-based antimissile weapons under development, remains plagued by scheduling delays and technological challenges that have more than doubled the projected cost of each new Patriot interceptor. As a result, the Pentagon has been compelled to consider buying fewer than half of the 1,200 missiles it had planned. In meetings over the past few months with the prime contractor, Lockheed Martin Corp., defense officials have demanded cost-saving measures and better management practices.
Intended as an antiaircraft system, the original Patriot batteries were rapidly rejiggered and rushed into combat for the first time during the 1991 Persian Gulf War to shield U.S. troops and Israel against Iraqi Scuds. Those interceptors worked by trying to get close enough to incoming Scuds to blow them out of the sky with exploding warheads.
But this "blast fragmentation" approach cannot be assured of destroying warheads armed with biological or chemical weapons. Nor is it effective in the vacuum of space. Hence, the Pentagon has focused on building antimissile weapons that would not just explode near incoming missiles but collide with them.
For the Patriot, this has meant developing a new missile topped with a "seeker" for honing in on a target, as well as improvements in tracking radars and computer links. Yesterday's test at the White Sands Missile Range involved the first flight of the new Patriot missile with its seeker, which is made by Boeing Co. It was not intended to be an actual intercept, just a "fly-by," but officials had held out the prospect of a direct hit.
When it happened, at 6:55 a.m. in New Mexico [8:55 a.m. EST], "there was a lot of hugging and cheering" among the military officials and civilian contractors on hand, said Montgomery. He watched the interceptor's 30-second test flight from inside the range command building.
Another 14 tests are planned against varying types of targets before the new weapon, known as PAC-3 -- for Patriot Advanced Capability -- is due for deployment in 2001.
The Ballistic Missile Defense Organization and the U.S. Army conducted the PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile Seeker Characterization Flight (SCF) test at White Sands Missile Range, N.M., today at 6:55 a.m. Preliminary test data indicate the test was successful.
Objectives included the collection of data and analyses of the system/missile capability to detect, track, and close with the target, the PAC-3 missile seeker data in a flight environment, and the missile closed-loop homing guidance performance in flight. While not a specific objective of the SCF, the PAC-3 missile intercepted the HERA reentry vehicle target.
The PAC-3 missile is a high velocity, hit-to-kill missile and is the next-generation PATRIOT missile being developed to provide increased defense capability against advanced theater ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hostile aircraft.
The first two PAC-3 missions consisted of missiles with special instrumentation packages in place of the seeker and the missions were structured to verify critical systems and missile performance prior to conducting target intercept flight tests. This SCF mission is the first flight test of a PAC-3 missile with a seeker. The remaining PAC-3 missions will consist of 16 PAC-3 missiles intercepting different classes of targets.
Lockheed Martin Vought Systems, Dallas, Texas, is the prime contractor responsible for missile development. The seeker is produced by Boeing North America, Duluth, Ga.
MOSCOW -- (Reuters) Russia stepped up its opposition to U.S. plans for a Star Wars-style defensive umbrella against rogue missiles in Asia on Friday, saying it could undermine regional stability and spark an arms race.
The United States says Washington and Japan are considering a so-called Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system because of a perceived threat from North Korea, which test fired a missile over Japan last year.
"We are against the setting up of such systems," Russia's Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov told a news conference. "Not just in Asia but in other parts of the world, including Europe."
Ivashov, in charge of international relations at the Defense Ministry, said a theatre defense system would simply add to the violations of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty the United States was trying to notch up.
"Such a system would undermine stability in the Far East," he said. "Attempts to set up such a system would spark a missile technology race."
The ABM treaty bars Russia and the United States from setting up new anti-missile defense systems. Washington has floated the idea of changing the treaty and some U.S. lawmakers want it scrapped outright, but Moscow says it should stand.
China is also opposed to the U.S. plans for a missile defense system in Asia.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin was to leave on Friday for Beijing and Pyongyang for talks on the issue, Interfax news agency reported. Karasin told Interfax Russia and China might consider coordinating their positions.
Ivashov confirmed Russia was holding talks with China on the issue and said a further round would be held "at a suitably high level" next month. He did not elaborate.
North Korea vowed on Friday not to make any concessions in talks with the United States on its missile program and accused Washington of seeking military dominance in the region.
"To put it mildly this subject of course does not interest just China and Russia but all countries in the region," Interfax quoted Karasin as saying. "This is something new, the details of which we want to hear from our American partners."
U.S. officials say they have sought to reassure Russia that Washington does not plan to wriggle out of its obligations under ABM, seen in Moscow as a cornerstone of nuclear stability.
Ivashov said just by raising the prospect of revising the ABM treaty the United States had further delayed Russian ratification of the START 2 deal cutting strategic nuclear arms. In addition, Washington was not sticking to the provisions of the earlier START 1 accord, he said.
"It's not Russia that is guilty because START 2 has not been ratified in the State Duma," he said, referring to the opposition-dominated lower house of parliament.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Seeing support growing for missile-defense legislation, Senate Democratic leaders are dropping an effort to block the measure. Instead, they are searching for a compromise to keep it from becoming a 2000 campaign liability.
Missile tests by North Korea and Iran, and reports of possible Chinese espionage at the Los Alamos, N.M., nuclear weapons laboratory, are being cited by sponsors as even more justification to move quickly.
"North Korea has demonstrated there is a threat of a ballistic missile attack that puts at risk some of the territory of the United States," said Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss. "Lack of a threat is no longer an excuse for voting against a bill of this kind."
The Senate opens debate today on the measure by Cochran and Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, to commit the Pentagon to fielding a system to protect the 50 states from a ballistic missile attack as soon as technologically possible.
Democrats used procedural tactics last May and September to keep the measure, subject of a White House veto threat, from even coming up. This year, they're not even trying.
"We obviously have more support on the Democratic side than we had last year," Cochran said in an interview last week.
Democrats concede the point. "We just don't know what the final vote would be," said Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, the senior Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee and the bill's principal opponent.
Instead, Levin said he will work for passage of substitute legislation designed to give the Clinton administration a little more flexibility while seeking to work with Russia on modifications to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
Russian officials claim the Cochrane-Inouye bill violates the ABM treaty's restrictions on anti-ballistic-missile defense systems. "I'm hopeful we can modify this language so we don't threaten to rip up this treaty," Levin said.
Adding to the changed atmosphere, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., are expected to name a bipartisan delegation this week to meet with members of the Russian parliament to try to find a voluntary way around the ABM problem.
A national system for shooting down incoming missiles was once almost universally derided by Democrats, denounced as "Star Wars" when first proposed by President Reagan in 1983.
But little political advantage can be gained these days from opposing a missile defense, Senate Democratic officials suggest.
The bill is supported by all 55 Senate Republicans and at least three other Democrats besides Inouye: Daniel Akaka of Hawaii, Ernest F. Hollings of South Carolina and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut. Two other Democrats, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, have hinted they might support it with some modifications.
A similar bill, by Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., and Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C., will be brought next week before the House, where it has wide support.
The legislation is at the center of a GOP attack on the administration's national security policies. Republicans contend that lax policies and technology transfers have helped China modernize its missile system.
Simple in its wording, the Cochran-Inouye bill would commit the United States to deploy ``as soon as technologically possible'' a system against "limited ballistic missile attack."
But the White House says the measure could require a crash program for developing an untrustworthy system. National security adviser Sandy Berger -- under attack from Republicans for not doing more to thwart Chinese efforts to buy or steal American missile technology -- says he'll recommend a veto if the legislation passes as drafted.
"We have not changed our position. We think that, simply put, the Cochran bill is too simplistic a formula," said P.J. Crowley, a White House spokesman.
Clinton proposed $6.6 billion for a missile defense system over the next five years in the budget he submitted last month. But he put off a decision on whether to field such a system until June 2000.
Republicans -- and some Democrats privately -- suggested that timing principally benefits Vice President Al Gore, and they see no reason to delay a decision until the middle of presidential campaign year.
There's one thing on which both supporters and critics of such a system agree: It won't come cheap. Some $40 billion has already been spent over the past 15 years since President Ronald Reagan's March 23, 1983 speech inaugurating the Strategic Defense Initiative.
In a case of clashing military and civilian interests, the U.S. Coast Guard has told the Pentagon not to expect approval of any more training exercises in U.S. waters that involve the muddling of satellite navigational signals.
Coast Guard authorities say they are worried that the military's periodic jamming of the Global Positioning System (GPS) could interfere with the Coast Guard's requirement to provide reliable navigational assistance to civilian ships that have come to rely solely on GPS.
The U.S. military also depends heavily on GPS for navigation and weapons guidance. The military-run system, introduced in the early 1990s, provides precise longitudinal and latitudinal coordinates to anything on land, at sea or in the air that has a GPS receiver.
To protect against possible enemy sabotage, the Pentagon has been running a series of jamming exercises. The tests help develop anti-jamming technology and also train military crews to identify GPS interference and switch to alternative means of navigation. But these efforts to disrupt GPS service by interrupting the signals also can complicate travel by civilian ships and aircraft that use the 24-satellite network to help guide them across the ocean or through the sky.
A Coast Guard system for improving GPS is scheduled to become fully operational on Monday. With it, the Coast Guard has assured mariners that GPS signals will be available 99.7 percent of the time.
"That allows for only a couple of hours a month of down time for maintenance, and no time for military training," said Cmdr. Peter Keane, a spokesman for the Coast Guard's navigation center. "After Monday, we're going to say we will most likely disapprove any request for military testing that touches navigable waters of the United States."
Following a number of GPS tests over land, the Defense Department picked an area off North Carolina to stage its first jamming exercise over water last month. Ahead of the week-long exercise, the Coast Guard and Federal Aviation Administration issued notices cautioning pilots and ship operators against relying on GPS signals in the affected areas during specified four-hour periods.
In the tests, and during previous ones held over North Carolina and Nevada in the past two years, there were no reports of civilian ships or planes veering off course or encountering safety problems attributable to faulty GPS readings. But military officials have acknowledged there is little way of ensuring that all those likely to be affected by the jamming will read and observe the warnings given in advance.
Asked yesterday about the Coast Guard action, Pentagon spokesmen said the matter is under review. In view of the conflict, Langhorne Bond, a former head of the FAA, wrote Defense Secretary William S. Cohen and Transportation Secretary Rodney E. Slater this week urging a reassessment of government plans to phase out ground-based navigational aids and allow civilian planes and ships to navigate solely by satellite systems.
"Both the Coast Guard and the Pentagon have reasonable concerns," Bond said yesterday. "It's the policy that allows civilian users to switch to GPS-only that's at fault and needs to be reconsidered."
By SANDRA BLAKESLEE, New York Times
LOS ALAMOS, N.M. -- Science has rapidly evolved from small nationalistic men's clubs into a global mix of men and women collaboratively addressing overriding questions. One result is a growing clash between the creative impulse to share information and the national security need to keep secrets -- including designs of nuclear weapons.
That conflict lies at the heart of the F.B.I.'s investigation into possible espionage at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Government officials say they believe that China stole information from the lab in the mid-1980's and used it to make miniature warheads. China denies that it did so.
The tension between openness and secrecy has always bedeviled scientists at Los Alamos. Founded in 1943 as a secret city tucked in the pine and juniper forests of the Jemez Mountains, it is the birthplace of the atomic bomb. In those days, security was so tight that when bomb designers went out for drinks and dinner, military personnel followed them and listened to their conversations. Many scientists did not even tell their wives what they were doing.
And yet this is where the biggest breach in American nuclear security occurred. Two scientists, Klaus Fuchs and Ted Hall, independently copied bomb blueprints and sent them to Russia, explaining later that they believed science should be freely shared. Two of their couriers, Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, were executed for espionage while two other couriers went to jail. Dr. Fuchs spent eight years in a British prison. Dr. Hall was never prosecuted.
Nowadays, security problems are much more diverse, ranging from an increasingly international approach to the unpredictable applications that discoveries may be suited to. More than half of the graduate students in engineering programs at top American universities are foreign born. Research teams are commonly composed of scientists from half a dozen countries.
Those factors make it difficult to track how classified information leaks, according to law enforcement and intelligence officials. And for scientists, they confuse the limits of legitimate professional exchange.
Since the end of the cold war, scientists from America, Russia, China and other nations have been attending an increasing number of international meetings, said Dr. Harold Agnew who directed Los Alamos National Laboratory in the 1970's.
Someone might give an unclassified account of how detonators are used in physics, he said, and just hearing the talk could give another scientist clues for solving weapons problems. "This may be a form of spying that happens all the time," he said.
In the current case, F.B.I. agents spent three days questioning a Taiwan-born American citizen, Wen Ho Lee, who was accused of security breaches and fired from his job as a computer scientist at Los Alamos. Lee has not been charged with any crime, but American officials say he is the prime suspect in the transfer of information.
Part of the focus of the F.B.I.'s questioning of Lee was a scientific meeting he attended in China in 1988, officials said. Exactly what he said there, and to whom, is part of what the bureau is trying to learn.
Some scientists warn that secrecy is almost antithetical to what goes on in today's labs. "Science is not a closed box," said Greg Mello, who studied engineering in California under professors from China and Turkey.
"You can't draw a line down the middle of a person's head."
But that is what many scientists are expected to do. Dr. John C. Browne, a career Los Alamos scientist who took over as director in October 1997, said in a telephone interview that some ideas are "born classified," including those that play important roles in weapons design.
Others can be shared safely, Dr. Browne said. "Ideas go in both directions," he said. "We might find someone working on a nonlinear system and realize it has an application in weapons as well." Nonlinear systems are hugely complex natural phenomena -- things like weather on Jupiter, human cognition, thermonuclear explosions -- that can only be studied using new mathematical tools and supercomputers.
When there is a gray area -- an idea could help outside scientists but it might also give hints about nuclear weapons design -- security experts are called in to make the judgment call, Dr. Browne said.
Los Alamos is itself illustrative of the uncomfortable dance of secrecy and openness. Some scientists there are using supercomputers to model how new weapons components would behave if incorporated into real bombs. The findings are top secret.
At the same time, these weapons designers are sharing their solutions to complex computer problems with Los Alamos colleagues who are working on similarly complex problems in weather prediction or brain function. Those findings, which are not classified, are shared with scientific colleagues all over the world.
Some people say that such divisions are impossible to sustain. The idea that "you can keep one aspect of your work secret and another aspect open is simply illusory," said Mello, who is now the director of the Los Alamos Study Group, a watchdog organization that follows a range of nuclear issues.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Los Alamos was adrift, said Dr. Sig Hecker, a former director of the lab. But in 1994 it got new marching orders: maintain stewardship of nuclear weapons through modeling components in advanced computers, help stop foreign proliferation of nuclear materials and clean up the polluted domestic nuclear sites.
To do so requires working closely with top-flight American universities, Dr. Hecker said. But now, their best minds belong to foreign graduate and postdoctoral students.
Still, many American intelligence and law-enforcement officials say that security at the labs has been lax for years. Robert M. Gates, Director of Central Intelligence from 1991 to 1993, said in an interview: "We were appalled at the number of Soviets they allowed to tour the labs. In the world of science, there are no borders. It makes people naïve about the potential for exploitation."
Ellen Bradbury Reid, a Santa Fe resident who was at Los Alamos as a child and has spent much of her life studying what happened there, said that even in the early years, security was loose enough to allow blueprints to be taken out. "If the guards knew you, you didn't have to hide anything," she said. "Anyway, the security people were worried about Germans, not Russians."
In the early 1970's, Los Alamos constructed its first center for unclassified work, and hundreds of scientists -- including the first delegation from mainland China -- began visiting.
Then and now only United States citizens can obtain clearances to work in secure areas and have access to classified documents. All others are kept, as they say in Los Alamos, "outside the fence."
The 1980's may have been a good time for Chinese spies at the national labs, said Tom Powers, an author of several books on espionage, because "everyone was focused on the Russians." According to the F.B.I. at least three incidents of Chinese espionage occurred during the 1980's.
Last year, 277 Chinese, 364 Russians and 115 Indian nationals visited or worked at Los Alamos, according to Dr. Browne. Of these, 88 were allowed access to secure areas.
The General Accounting Office, a watchdog agency of Congress, recently reported that out of 5,472 visitors to the laboratory between 1994 and 1996, many from countries deemed "sensitive," only 892, or 16 percent, were given background checks before being allowed access.
Security has been stepped up in recent months, according to Jim Danneskiold, a laboratory spokesman. Many of the younger scientists are less imbued with the old cold war mentality, he said, and need to be reminded of security risks. Scientists who work in classified areas are forbidden to talk about their work "outside the fence" at all times.
GENEVA (Reuters) -- China, hoping to head off a proposed U.S. missile defense scheme, proposed Thursday that the United Nations negotiate a ban on weapons in outer space.
Chinese ambassador Li Changhe said in a speech to the U.N. Conference on Disarmament (CD) that preventing an arms race in outer space had become a "pressing" issue.
Pakistan's envoy Munir Akram and Egypt's ambassador Mounir Zahran backed China's proposal to launch formal negotiations on outer space at the CD, which has 61 member states.
Diplomats said the U.S. delegation, which did not respond to China's speech, was the only member opposed to setting up a CD committee to negotiate on outer space. The forum takes decisions by consensus, meaning Washington can block the proposal.
The hypothetical U.S. Theater Missile Defense system, backed by Japan, would be land-based, but probably use space sensors to provide early warning of enemy or accidental launches.
China has stepped up denunciation of the scheme. President Jiang Zemin, who is to visit Switzerland from March 25-27, is expected to push the issue at the CD, diplomatic sources said.
Last week a senior Beijing official warned Washington that any attempt to bring Taiwan under the missile defense umbrella would be seen as direct U.S. military involvement in Taiwan and encourage pro-independence forces on the island.
"China has always attached great importance to prevention of an arms race in outer space," Li told the Geneva body.
"Given the fact that some country in recent years has been intensifying its efforts in developing and testing weapons and weapon systems in outer space, and in particular in view of the latest disturbing developments, prevention of an arms race in outer space has become more pressing and present."
Li added: "China believes that the Conference on Disarmament, as the single multilateral disarmament negotiating forum, should take concrete actions in this regard.
"It should re-establish an ad hoc committee to negotiate and conclude international legal instruments on prevention of an arms race in outer space."
The CD had a committee on outer space until 1994. Last year it only reached consensus to name a special coordinator, but he was unable to drum up support for launching negotiations.
Pakistan's Akram said "recent developments" showed the need for urgent action. "We believe prevention is better than cure." The talks, which end a first 10-week session on March 26, remain divided over its 1999 work program, diplomats say.
The 30 non-aligned member states proposed last month that negotiations be launched aimed at total nuclear disarmament.
But the five official nuclear powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- have refused to enter full-blown multilateral negotiations on nuclear disarmament.
The five argue that the United States and Russia are already cutting their huge nuclear arsenals, a process they say should eventually be widened to include the other three powers.
But Japan Thursday called on the three smaller official nuclear weapons states -- Britain, China and France -- to freeze their nuclear arsenals as a contribution to nuclear disarmament.
Japan's ambassador Akira Hayashi also backed launching negotiations to halt production of nuclear bomb-making fissile material -- plutonium and highly enriched uranium.
BEIJING (AP) -- China and Russia have held talks about a proposed U.S. anti-missile umbrella and are united in their opposition to the system, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said today.
Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao gave no details on the Chinese and Russian "consultations" about the proposed Theater Missile Defense system. He also refused to say what if any action the two countries would take in future.
But the Japanese news agency Kyodo, quoting an unnamed Russian government source, reported Wednesday from Moscow that security experts from the foreign and defense ministries of China and Russia have been meeting every two months to exchange information about the anti-missile system.
The talks began late last year at China's request, and the two sides will likely end up making a decision on a united approach, possibly jointly asking that the United States and Japan terminate development of the program, Kyodo's source said.
Zhu, the Chinese spokesman, said the two sides held talks "because this issue has bearing on global and regional security and stability and affects the security interests of many countries."
China fears the system, also known as TMD, could spark a costly arms race. It also is determined to ensure that any anti-missile umbrella is not extended to cover Taiwan, the island that China regards as part of its territory.
"China and Russia have both indicated and made clear their opposition to TMD," said Zhu. "Russia is opposed to TMD and we have also expressed our strong opposition to this, so the two sides share a position on this issue."
The United States has rebuffed Chinese concerns, saying it is still studying the system and has not decided yet whether to use it.
GENEVA (Reuters) -- China, hoping to head off a proposed U.S. missile defense scheme, proposed Thursday that the United Nations negotiate a ban on weapons in outer space.
Chinese ambassador Li Changhe said in a speech to the U.N. Conference on Disarmament (CD) that preventing an arms race in outer space had become a "pressing" issue.
Pakistan's envoy Munir Akram and Egypt's ambassador Mounir Zahran backed China's proposal to launch formal negotiations on outer space at the CD, which has 61 member states.
Diplomats said the U.S. delegation, which did not respond to China's speech, was the only member opposed to setting up a CD committee to negotiate on outer space. The forum takes decisions by consensus, meaning Washington can block the proposal.
The hypothetical U.S. Theater Missile Defense system, backed by Japan, would be land-based, but probably use space sensors to provide early warning of enemy or accidental launches.
China has stepped up denunciation of the scheme. President Jiang Zemin, who is to visit Switzerland from March 25-27, is expected to push the issue at the CD, diplomatic sources said.
Last week a senior Beijing official warned Washington that any attempt to bring Taiwan under the missile defense umbrella would be seen as direct U.S. military involvement in Taiwan and encourage pro-independence forces on the island.
"China has always attached great importance to prevention of an arms race in outer space," Li told the Geneva body.
"Given the fact that some country in recent years has been intensifying its efforts in developing and testing weapons and weapon systems in outer space, and in particular in view of the latest disturbing developments, prevention of an arms race in outer space has become more pressing and present."
Li added: "China believes that the Conference on Disarmament, as the single multilateral disarmament negotiating forum, should take concrete actions in this regard.
"It should re-establish an ad hoc committee to negotiate and conclude international legal instruments on prevention of an arms race in outer space."
The CD had a committee on outer space until 1994. Last year it only reached consensus to name a special coordinator, but he was unable to drum up support for launching negotiations.
Pakistan's Akram said "recent developments" showed the need for urgent action. "We believe prevention is better than cure." The talks, which end a first 10-week session on March 26, remain divided over its 1999 work program, diplomats say.
The 30 non-aligned member states proposed last month that negotiations be launched aimed at total nuclear disarmament.
But the five official nuclear powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- have refused to enter full-blown multilateral negotiations on nuclear disarmament.
The five argue that the United States and Russia are already cutting their huge nuclear arsenals, a process they say should eventually be widened to include the other three powers.
But Japan Thursday called on the three smaller official nuclear weapons states -- Britain, China and France -- to freeze their nuclear arsenals as a contribution to nuclear disarmament.
Japan's ambassador Akira Hayashi also backed launching negotiations to halt production of nuclear bomb-making fissile material -- plutonium and highly enriched uranium.
ABU DHABI (Reuters) - Defense Secretary William Cohen met the president of the United Arab Emirates Monday and said he had offered to share American monitoring of any Iranian and Iraqi missile tests with six Gulf allies.
Cohen, emerging from talks with Sheikh Zaid bin Sultan al- Nahayan said the Pentagon could establish receivers in the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain to receive U.S. satellite and other intelligence monitoring information on missile tests in the region.
"We would do this with all of the Gulf states -- have a direct link between what our sensors pick up and then communicate that to them to keep them appraised of ballistic missile testing taking place in the region," the secretary told reporters travelling with him.
"We think it is beneficial to all of the states and we are hopeful that each state will see it as being in its interests to have that information."
U.S. officials said no agreements had yet been reached for such monitoring but that Cohen had made offers to Saudi Arabia and Oman during visits at the weekend.
Cohen, on the fourth leg of a grueling nine-nation Gulf and Middle East tour to discuss security threats from Iran and Iraq, said that in Monday's talks he denied what he called local rumors and press reports that the United States "is trying to organize or orchestrate a break-up of Iraq."
France has criticized continuing U.S. and British air strikes on no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq in response to anti-aircraft fire from President Saddam Hussein's military forces.
The French have also called for lifting of U.N. sanctions against Baghdad and the UAE has expressed some sympathy with the idea of lifting sanctions. But the Emirates, a group of seven small Gulf states nestled between Saudi Arabia and Oman, have also demanded that Iraq comply with U.N. mandates on weapons of mass destruction.
"There have been a number of stories and rumors that have been circulated locally that that (a break-up of Iraq) is the objective and goal of the United States," said Cohen of the bombing and current U.S. attempts to aid opposition groups to Saddam in Iraq.
"There is no basis to that. In fact, we have said time and time again that we believe that Iraq's integrity must be maintained," he told reporters.
"Our goal is to one day help bring about a change in regime so that the people of Iraq can, in fact, join the international community as a full-fledged member."
The emirates announced last year that they planned to buy 80 advanced U.S. F-16 warplanes built by Lockheed Martin Corp for some $6 billion.
The Pentagon said subsequently that the United States would also sell $2 billion in air-to-air weapons, including advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAMs) to the UAE for the planes.
Cohen will later visit Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt and Israel before flying back to Washington Friday.
The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration launched the Cassini space ship on October 15, 1997, on a seven-year mission to study the planet Saturn, purportedly in the hope of "understanding the birth and evolution of our solar system." But by using 72.3 lbs. (32,8 kg) of radioactive Plutonium to run Cassini's 740-watt instrument panel, NASA created the possibility of unspeakable disaster for the people (and other life) on our own planet.
NASA plans to accelerate Cassini by using Earth's gravitational field on August 18, 1999, when it plans to have the space ship approach Earth in a so-called "fly-by" at a velocity of 10 miles per second. NASA claims that the odds against a calamitous mishap, namely the space ship entering our atmosphere are one in a million.
But there is important evidence showing that NASA has seriously underestimated the possibility of human or equipment error -- and the potential danger of any accident during the fly-by maneuver.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, for example, in May 1997 reported 18 different types of malfunctions that may occur, including electrical short-circuits, meteors or space debris striking the space probe, and erroneous ground commands. If the craft does veer from its course even slightly, Cassini could plunge into Earth's atmosphere and burn up like a meteorite.
Cassini has more Plutonium-238 on board than any mission before. Because of its shorter half-life, according to physicist Dr. Kai Petzke from the Technical University of Berlin, the isotope Pu-238 is about 280 times more radioactive than the well known bomb material Pu-239. During atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons, many tons of Pu-239 were released into the atmosphere. But because Pu-238 is so much more dangerous, it would more than double the human-made Plutonium activity in the atmosphere if the 400,000 Curie on board Cassini were disseminated.
NASA'S MISINFORMATION
Major flaws in NASA's Environmental Impact Statements were exposed by the Nuclear Safety Review Panel appointed to study the safety of Cassini. Federal regulations require a separate evaluation whenever radioactive material is introduced into space. The panel comprised representatives from the U.S. EPA, Dept. of Energy, Dept. of Defense, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and NASA. In its July 1997 Safety Evaluation Report (SER), the panel noted at least three major discrepancies.
NASA based its figures on the cancer-causing potential of Plutonium on the dose from general ionizing radiation. But the SER noted "the probability of a single inhaled particle inducing a cancer," which NASA ignored in all its Environmental Impact Statements, although it was reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (April 1997) from experiments financed in part by NASA. Moreover, even the SER fatality estimate could fall far short of the truth. The SER fails to mention that each kilogram of Plutonium contains trillions of radioactive atoms. The number of fatal cancers might be many times greater than tens of thousands.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RE-ENTRY
What are the chances of the Cassini space probe entering Earth's atmosphere? NASA claims the odds are one in a million, but according to renowned physicist Dr. Michio Kaku that figure is based solely on the chance of an impact with a meteor in outer space. Meanwhile, far greater and more likely risks are posed by mishaps such as lost radio contact or misfired rockets. Dr. Kaku calculates the chance of a Cassini Earth fly-by error is about 10 percent.
NASA has taken frightening chances from the beginning of this mission. For example, the Titan IV rocket it used to launch Cassini now has a 12 percent failure rate on lift-off. Also, there have been nine documented space program accidents that released Plutonium into our environment. In short, the agency's safety record is abysmal, and yet the stakes in this case are extremely high.
WHAT CAN WE DO?
We are reaching a point of no return: on 24 June 1999 NASA plans to direct Cassini's final fly-by around Venus to sling the space ship toward Earth. It is essential we all demand that leaders internationally, and especially in the United States, intercede in this misguided situation. A change of course is possible: to redirect the probe in another direction, perhaps a longer route to Saturn. If this isn't viable, then Cassini should be directed into the sun.
On 24 February 1999, Dr. Joan Russow, national leader of the Green Party of Canada submitted a Stop Cassini Fly-by Petition and Resolution to the Prime Minister of Canada. This petition was drafted by the Cassini Redirect Coalition and it calls for heads of state or other national leaders to make demands in the United Nations and in the International Court to stop the Cassini Earth fly-by.
The situation is extremely serious. And the key is to respond now, while there is time to protect our world from nuclear radioactive pollution. It's time to return to the worthy ideals the U.S. ratified by signing the UN Treaty in 1967: "the peaceful use of outer space." The health of ourselves and our world is on the line.
A soon-to-be-released Pentagon study says expanding the Navy's Aegis ship-based missile defense system to protect all 50 states would cost $16 billion to $19 billion, much more than the figure put forward by advocates of the idea.
Although some early supporters of the Navy system said it could be fielded for as little as $2 billion to $4 billion by expanding the existing Aegis infrastructure, a study by the Pentagon's Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) shows "it will not be the quick, cheap or easy solution that some outside advocates may have advertised," the BMDO director, Air Force Lt. Gen. Lester L. Lyles, told Congress this week.
The Clinton administration recently decided to push ahead with a limited national missile defense system, promising a presidential decision on deployment next year and adding $6.6 billion in future funding to next year's budget. Although the administration is focused on a ground-based system, some members of Congress and outside groups have pressed instead for expansion of the Aegis system as a quicker, cheaper approach.
But the BMDO study points out that the Aegis system has a severe limitation beside cost. Because its radars to detect missile launches are aboard Navy cruisers and destroyers, the system must be provided "sufficient warning of the impending attack to deploy within a few hundred kilometers of the threat launch location or the specific area to be defended," according to Lyles.
A major part of the high cost of a nationwide sea-based system arises from the need to build three new Aegis-type vessels so there can be ship rotation. But the high cost also comes from the price of the newest planned sea-based Standard missile interceptors that would be carried on each ship. Without these upgrades, the Aegis system "would have no useful capability against intercontinental ballistic missiles or submarine-launched ballistic missiles," the report concludes.
The BMDO study was conducted "without consideration of, and without prejudice to, the terms and requirements of the ABM Treaty," Lyles said. The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty specifically bars sea-based systems and the Clinton administration is seeking to develop and test a land-based system that will comply with the treaty, although deployment might require treaty modifications.
A Heritage Foundation missile defense study team in 1996 recommended modifying the Aegis to intercept incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles. A 1997 update of that notion was picked up by several members of Congress. Heritage President Edwin J. Feulner Jr. said last year that "by the year 2003, the United States could mount an effective, mobile missile defense that would protect all 50 states as well as American troops abroad and the territory of America's allies, all for an estimated $1.5 billion to $2 billion per year over five years."
The BMDO report does say that the unmodified Aegis system could meet another potential third-country threat to the United States -- that of cruise missiles from ships or submarines near the coast. Even without upgrades, the Aegis system "could have a capability against shorter-range threats attacking U.S. coastal targets," according to the report.
Lyles said the study concludes that "the most practical and effective role" for a sea-based Aegis system "would be to supplement" a land-based ballistic missile defense system. He added that such an approach is not yet contemplated and would require additional funding.
TOKYO (AP) -- North Korea has deployed medium-range missiles at a launch site near its border with China, a newspaper said today, quoting U.S. and Japenese military sources.
The report -- which Japanese officials refused to confirm or deny to The Associated Press -- came about seven months after North Korea fired a missile over Japan that landed in the Pacific Ocean.
That was believed to be a Taepodong missile capable of striking any part of the Japanese archipelago. Its firing prompted the United States, Japan and South Korea to review their defense systems amid deep concerns over the North's missile program.
Japan's Sankei newspaper quoted unidentified U.S. and Japanese sources saying North Korea has deployed Rodong missiles, with a range of up to 620 miles, near the border with China.
The paper said a major North Korean missile factory is located near the Rodong missile site in Yongodong, an area north of Pyongyang near the Chinese border. A total of about 30 Rodong missiles have been deployed in several unidentified sites in North Korea, the report said.
Japan's Self-Defense Agency refused to comment on the report.
In January, Japanese media reported that North Korea was building at least five underground launch sites for long-range Taepodong missiles near its borders with China and South Korea.
North Korea has said the rocket it fired in August launched a satellite, but Japan has dismissed that claim. Recently, Pyongyang said that it is preparing to launch another satellite.
The Rodong was last test-launched in 1993. The single-stage, liquid-fuel missile can carry a 450-pound warhead. North Korea also is reportedly developing an upgraded Rodong with a range of up to 940 miles.
Currently, American and North Korean officials are meeting in New York to discuss U.S. concerns about an underground construction site in North Korea that the Clinton administration believes may involve nuclear weapons development.
William Perry, the U.S. government policy coordinator on North Korea, arrived in Beijing today at the start of an Asian visit that will allow him to discuss the reclusive Communist country with Chinese, South Korean and Japanese officials.
CAPE CANAVERAL AIR STATION, Fla. - Opponents of NASA's plutonium-powered Cassini spacecraft gathered Saturday outside the gates of the Air Station as they gained momentum for other protests against the use of nuclear power in space.
About 20 protesters carrying signs rallied for about a half-hour under the watchful eyes of security officers with the Air Station, where Cassini was launched in 1997.
"We know for a fact that they are planning other launches like this," said Bruce Gagnon, coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space, the Gainesville-based group leading the protest. "Sooner or later there could be an accident."
The protesters are concerned an accident could cause the release of cancer-causing plutonium into the atmosphere. They said Cassini was just the precursor to other nuclear powered launches.
"As a Brevard County resident I know that my family is sitting on ground zero in case of a launch failure," said Marie Telesca-Whipple. "We must stand globally and say that this must stop."
Protesters also are concerned about Cassini's Earth flyby in August.
NASA engineers say the spacecraft's maneuver near Earth this August poses no danger. They say there is less than a 1-in-1-million chance the spacecraft will veer off course and crash back through Earth's atmosphere. And even if it did, the plutonium is packed in super-hard containers that could withstand re-entry and impact with the ground or ocean.
"If it's one chance in 4 billion, that's one too many," said Jim Ream of Mims, who recently retired after 33 years with NASA.
Protesters said that as Cassini's Earth flyby approaches, they will stage more protests, including one on June 12 they hope will draw a large number of protesters.
"This is a place we've come to again and again," Gagnon said. "Now what's different is that people all over the world are saying these things."
Launched in October 1997, Cassini is flying a roundabout course that will take it to Saturn in July 2004. To produce power, Cassini carries 72 pounds of plutonium, which generates electricity through natural decay.
Before it can get to Saturn, Cassini must fly near several planets and use their gravity to increase its speed. The spacecraft made a pass by Venus last year. A second Venus approach is set for June.
The Earth flyby will follow Aug. 18. A final maneuver near Jupiter is set for December 2000.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Legislation declaring deployment of a national missile defense system to be official U.S. policy is advancing in Congress, with bills now ready for floor action in both the House and the Senate.
And despite Clinton administration objections, the bills are drawing considerable bipartisan support.
By a 50-3 margin, the House Armed Services Committee approved a bill Thursday that, while committing the administration to pursue such a system, sets no timetable. A Senate version could come up for a full vote by early March.
President Clinton included money in his fiscal 1999 budget for beginning to build such a system but has delayed until June 2000 a decision on whether to go ahead.
"I am encouraged by the administration's announcement that an additional $6.6 billion has been identified for a national missile defense that might be deployed," said Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., a sponsor of the House bill, "but I am concerned that the administration has not committed to deploying this system."
The measure by Weldon and Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C., states simply: ``It is the policy of the United States to deploy a national missile defense.''
Such a system, to protect against incoming nuclear missiles, has been a favored project of congressional Republicans since then-President Reagan proposed a space-based shield against incoming missiles in the early 1980s.
Last year's firing of a ballistic missile by North Korea, and reports that Iran is developing a missile program, has drawn a lot of Democratic support to the program as well.
The committee vote "represents an important step in the debate over defending the American people against the threat of ballistic missile attack," the committee chairman, Floyd D. Spence, R-S.C., said.
Spence said the margin of the vote "reflects the committee's strong bipartisan belief that all Americans deserve to be protected against the growing threat of ballistic missile attack."
Voting against the measure were committee Democrats Wayne Evans of Illinois, Cynthia McKinney of Georgia and Tom Allen of Maine.
A Senate version by Sens. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., and Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, could be brought to a vote early next month. It declares as national policy to deploy an antimissile defense "as soon as technologically possible."
Even though it would not compel Clinton to act, the administration has threatened to veto the Senate version.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee the legislation could undermine efforts by the United States to negotiate with Moscow changes in the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty.
That treaty restricts both nations' abilities to build missile defense systems.
"Enactment of this legislation clearly would be interpreted by Russia that the United States is not interested in working toward a cooperative solution," she said Wednesday.
The House version thus far has not drawn a veto threat.
MOSCOW, The leading designer of Russia's new intercontinental ballistic missile claimed in an interview published today that the Topol-M rocket has the ability to "effectively penetrate" the antimissile systems "of any state."
The comments by Yuri Solomonov, general constructor at the Moscow Institute of Heat Technology, which built the new missile, made public what other Russia experts have previously asserted privately: that the missile has a secret design that permits it to elude the most modern missile defenses.
Solomonov was not specific about the missile's shield-smashing ability in an interview with the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta, and his claim could not be verified. But his comments could add to the debate over the feasibility of limited missile defense systems, such as one now being developed by the United States.
His remarks also could be intended as a warning to the United States, which has suggested modifying the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty to allow use of a limited missile defense. Russia has steadfastly opposed changing the treaty, although there have been some hints that it might be willing to accept changes as part of a larger arms-control agreement.
The single-warhead, solid-fueled Topol-M is the centerpiece of Russia's hopes for preserving its nuclear deterrent in the years ahead, at a time when many of its aging missiles, submarines, aircraft and command-and-control systems are scheduled to be retired because of obsolescence and lack of money to build replacements. A first regiment of 10 new Topol-M missiles was placed on combat-duty status in December.
Solomonov said the missile had "from the very beginning design capabilities enabling it to effectively penetrate a potential ABM system of any state." He said the missile has different configurations, so that it can function without special equipment against missile defenses or be outfitted to penetrate a defensive shield.
"One must understand," he said, "that if you are going along the second route, you must increase spending and also change the characteristics of the missile -- make it heavier, more sophisticated in construction."
He said that even though the Topol-M has received high priority and personal backing from Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, funding for the project last year was only half of what was budgeted because of Russia's continuing economic problems.
Solomonov said characteristics of the Topol-M - in addition to its ability to penetrate an anti-ballistic missile shield - include a high degree of accuracy, resistance to damage and the "effectiveness" of the warhead itself.
He suggested that the warhead has a self-targeting mechanism that activates just as the warhead is approaching its target.
The Topol-M is designed to replace aging "heavy" missiles with multiple warheads, which were outlawed by the START II arms treaty. The treaty has languished unratified in the lower house of the Russian parliament, and some American analysts have suggested that Russia could be allowed to modify the Topol-M into a multiple-warhead missile in exchange for changes in the ABM treaty.
Solomonov said that if START II is discarded and if Russia can scrape up enough money, the Topol-M could be converted to a multiple-warhead missile. Other officials have said it could carry up to seven warheads, although they would be relatively small.
The Clinton administration has all but decided to cancel a U.S. company's contract to sell a $600 million satellite communications system to a Chinese consortium because of fears that Beijing's military will use the network, government and industry officials said.
Hughes Electronics Corp., which has been seeking U.S. permission to launch its satellites in China, said it has received no word on whether its planned Asia-Pacific Mobile Telecommunications (APMT) system will be approved.
A denial would cause Hughes to lose several hundred million dollars in business to European competitors and cast doubt on pending U.S. satellite deals with China, company and industry executives said.
Under its contract with the Chinese government-dominated APMT, Hughes had a Feb. 15 deadline to secure all U.S. approvals or APMT could pull out. It hasn't, but the deadline added urgency to a months-long interagency struggle over the project.
The Commerce Department has supported the deal. The Pentagon and the State Department have opposed it, alarmed that the two-satellite network could improve communications among China's widely dispersed military units.
Six Chinese firms, some tied to China's military, control most of the venture's stock and would oversee the spacecraft's operations in handling cellular phone calls for China and 21 other Asian nations. An interagency panel has spent months investigating the affiliations of these firms.
"I think it's over for APMT," a Pentagon official said.
"We've received no notification one way or the other," said Hughes spokeswoman Helen Sanders. Industry officials said terminating APMT makes no more sense than barring sales of cars or wheat to China simply because Beijing's military might use them.
The Justice Department is investigating Hughes for giving China technical data on U.S. rockets in 1995 that could have helped Beijing improve its ballistic missiles.
China is sharing space technology with North Korea, a move that could boost Pyongyang's long-range missile program, White House and Pentagon officials told The Washington Times.
The space cooperation was discovered by the National Security Agency late last year and revealed to senior Clinton administration officials recently in sensitive intelligence reports.
China and North Korea are working jointly to develop space satellites, officials familiar with the reports said.
The reports are alarming because North Korea used a long-range Taepodong missile in August to try to place a satellite in orbit. They also heighten fears among some Pentagon officials that militarily useful U.S. satellite technology, shared improperly with China in 1995 and 1996, may have been given to the North Koreans.
"There have been some scientific contacts with the North Koreans and the Chinese in the satellite area," said a senior national security official.
Because of the sensitive sources used to collect the information, officials refused to discuss details about the cooperation.
The senior official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said in an interview that the cooperation involves exchanges of scientists and technology. The reports showed that China is "working with North Korea on a satellite, with the expectation that it would be launched into space," he said.
The official said there are worries about the cooperation, but so far U.S. intelligence agencies have not confirmed that the space technology is linked to the development of the North Korea's long-range Taepodong missile, which was test-fired for the first time with a satellite Aug. 31.
The CIA discovered that the missile carried a solid-fuel third stage. It attempted to launch a small satellite that broke apart before reaching orbit. The missile and third stage appeared to have advanced technology features needed for long-range missiles and warheads.
At the Pentagon, officials appeared more concerned about the new reports. A Pentagon official familiar with the Chinese-North Korean exchanges said he believes the space technology cooperation will likely boost Pyongyang's missile program, both the long-range Taepodongs and medium-range Nodongs.
The knowhow for space launches is almost identical to that used for missiles, and nations use space development efforts as a cover for long-range missile programs.
"They are so interconnected there is just no way you can separate them out," the official said.
A third U.S. official with access to intelligence also said the satellite cooperation is more clear than the missile-technology links.
Chinese Embassy Press Counselor Cui Jianjun called reports of space cooperation with North Korea "groundless."
"China has carried out strict and effective control of missile and satellite-launch technology, so there is no such thing as China providing assistance to the Korean satellite development program," Mr. Cui said.
Another Pentagon official said the cooperation, detected in late August or early September, included travel to North Korea by scientists from the Chinese Academy of Launch Technology, which has worked in the past with U.S. satellite manufacturers.
The Pentagon has linked the launch academy, part of the Chinese defense-industry complex, to Hughes Space and Communications Co.'s improper sharing of U.S. satellite technology in 1995. A Pentagon report issued in December concluded that U.S. technology shared with China during a launch-failure probe may have violated rules against improving Beijing's satellite and missile capabilities and raised "national security concerns" about "potentially contributing to China's missile capabilities."
Another Pentagon report on a 1996 Chinese booster that failed to launch a U.S. satellite concluded that "U.S. national security was harmed" by the improper sharing of technology with China by Hughes and another satellite maker, Loral Space & Communications Ltd.
The Chinese-North Korean cooperation has worried some White House officials, who view the exchanges as undermining the Clinton administration's conciliatory policies toward China.
The technology transfers also could violate the 29-nation Missile Technology Control Regime, which China promised to "study" joining.
The MTCR is an export-control pact that bars transfers of certain missile-related technology, including space technology that could be applied to missiles.
China's role in supplying missile technology around the world was highlighted by CIA Director George Tenet in recent Senate testimony. "Both the Chinese government and Chinese firms have long-standing and deep relations with proliferant countries, and we are not convinced that China's companies fully share the commitments undertaken by senior Chinese leaders," Mr. Tenet told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Feb. 2. "In short, our guard remains up on this question."
A congressional defense aide said that Mr. Tenet also testified that foreign assistance is a key factor in the spread of global missile technology. "This demonstrates that along with Russia, China continues to assist rogue nations in their efforts to increase the range of their ballistic missiles," the aide said. "Further, it demonstrates that Chinese pledges to abide by the MTCR provision are completely lacking sincerity."
The last time U.S. intelligence uncovered evidence of Chinese-North Korean missile cooperation was 1995. Intelligence reports at that time indicated some 200 North Korean missile specialists had traveled to China for training.
"Thanks to the actions of Hughes and Loral in 1995 and 1996, the best U.S. knowhow may well have been transmitted to North Korea through this Chinese conduit," said the aide.
In 1994, the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency reported that it believed China had helped design the Taepodong-2 missile because its first-stage diameter is very close in size to China's CSS-2 intermediate-range missiles.
The Senate should be aware of a development that will profoundly alter international relations, cripple disarmament work, and tie Canada inextricably to U.S. ill-conceived military plans. I speak of the U.S. government's current design of a ballistic missile defense shield over North America.
Canadians thought this problem went away when Canada refused the U.S. invitation to participate in the Strategic Defense Initiative (known as "Star Wars") in 1985. SDI itself was abandoned, but in the 1990s it reappeared as a National Missile Defense program designed to provide for the interception of long-range missiles targeted on the United States. A missile defense program for North America is now being promoted and Canada is inexorably being drawn into the web of U.S. military-industrial-complex interests.
This is being done without the knowledge or consent of the Canadian Parliament and people. The Government of Canada keeps saying: Relax, nothing's going to happen for a long time.
Honourable Senators, there is plenty to worry about and the time for us to speak out against this retrograde, dangerous proposal is now.
The facts, briefly, are these:
1. Discussions are now taking place between the United States and Canada on a North American ballistic missile defense (BMD) system. The U.S. is on track to deploy this system in Alaska and North Dakota possibly by 2005, and the Administration is pumping $6.6 billion into the project. The time for Canada to decide its course of action is now, not later, on the eve of deployment, when Canada's options will be significantly reduced.
2. The 1994 Defense White Paper unfortunately opened the door to Canadian participation, despite a 1985 Canadian government decision not to participate in U.S. Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) research. SDI closed down in the early 1990s. BMD is its successor. The U.S. wants Canada involved in BMD through NORAD.
3. BMD would violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM), which forbids a nation-wide missile defense system. The ABM Treaty is an essential part of nuclear arms control. It has long been recognized that constructing such national defenses (leaving aside the improbability of their working) would spur opposing nations to develop new offensive weapons to circumvent defense systems. Thus the nuclear arms race would keep accelerating.
4. The U.S. recognizes BMD would violate the existing ABM and has suggested to Russia that the ABM be renegotiated. Russia, so far, adamantly refuses and has threatened to stall START II even further if BMD is proceeded with. The Government of China has warned that a new nuclear arms race will break out in Asia.
5. The Canadian government said in 1995 it opposed abrogating or weakening the ABM, calling it "absolutely essential," for the maintenance of international nuclear security. In 1996, the government added, "Canada remains firmly committed to the 1972 ABM Treaty."
6. The Canadian government has consistently said it will work for the continued development of international law. To join in a process of weakening or abrogating the ABM to satisfy the demands of the U.S. military system, which has not lost its appetite for expansion even though the Cold War ended nearly a decade ago, would greatly endanger Canada's credibility in arms control and disarmament work. Canada must speak now. By signaling that Canada is open to the idea, DND is encouraging the U.S. to proceed on the assumption that Canada will be involved.
7. U.S. proponents claim that BMD will protect the continent against the incoming missiles of "rogue" States. But BMD is a bad idea because it presumes a potential attacker would develop an extremely expensive delivery technology when it could much more easily and reliably deliver a bomb in a commercial airliner or shipping container, methods a BMD would be powerless to stop.
Honourable Senators, Canadian interests in the NORAD Agreement are being compromised through U.S. action. NORAD was not meant to be a ballistic missile defense, yet NORAD is being used as the instrument to jump start U.S. ability to fight space wars of the 21st century. U.S. military interests are playing on fears of a ballistic missile attack on North America by some rogue state or terrorist and have even conjured up the ludicrous spectacle of North Korea launching a ballistic missile attack on Montreal. The U.S. Ambassador to Canada has joined in this softening up approach to getting Canada's compliance by references to the need of our two countries to stick together against vague enemies of the future.
We must realize what is happening. The U.S. is extending its military capacity in order to be the militarily dominant nation of the 21st century and to secure this power by a comprehensive system of surveillance and communications technologies. Is putting such immense power in the hands of a single state in the best interests of international peace and security? Is abrogating the ABM Treaty justified by such inordinate quest for power? Is Canada, which campaigned hard for a seat on the U.N. Security Council in order to bring forward new ideas for peace and security, served by tying ourselves to a military machine out of control?
The Canadian government has got to stop saying: Don't worry, be happy. Every month that goes by without the Government speaking out firmly against participation in a ballistic missile defense system allows the U.S. government to interpret our silence as tacit acceptance. Then, when the system is about to be deployed, it will be too late for us to pull out. Moreover, putting $600 million of Canadian taxpayers' money into this ill-conceived venture would be an unconscionable affront to every Canadian who needs improved health, education and social care.
The correct answer to what BMD seeks to accomplish, namely the security of North America, is to pursue, as the International Court of Justice has called for, comprehensive negotiations leading to the elimination of nuclear weapons. Significant progress in this respect has been made in recent years. This progress is now jeopardized by BMD. As the prestigious U.S. National Academy of Sciences concluded in its 1997 report, The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy, "deploying missile defenses outside the bounds of the ABM Treaty could greatly diminish the prospects for future reductions in nuclear weapons." That is cautious language for what should be stated frankly: we can kiss goodbye to nuclear disarmament if BMD proceeds. And if strategic arms control collapses, the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Canada has always championed, will be in ruins.
Now is the time to debate this. Now is the time to inform the public. Now is the time to obtain the consent of the Canadian Parliament.
Honourable Senators, on the basis of my experience in personally meeting with hundreds of informed Canadians in all 10 provinces on nuclear weapons issues, I contend that the Canadian public opposes the madness of a missile defense system. The Canadian Government knows there is little support for the system. Why, then, dally?
The Government should couple its resistance to missile defense by a vigorous implementation of the 15 recommendations in the Report of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Canada and the Nuclear Challenge: Reducing the Political Value of Nuclear Weapons for the Twenty-First Century. This report has rightly pointed the way for Canada to work with like-minded States in pressing the Nuclear Weapons States to make an unequivocal commitment to commence negotiations leading to the elimination of nuclear weapons. The Committee wants Canada to argue within NATO for less reliance on nuclear weapons so that the way can be cleared for the NATO nuclear States to pledge No-First-Use of nuclear weapons and to put their nuclear weapons on de-alert status.
That would be a positive contribution by Canada to enhancing peace and security in the world. That is the way forward, providing confidence-building measures and hope for the Canadian people who want an end to nuclear weapons.
The Clinton administration is on a slippery slope toward deploying a ballistic missile defense system that might protect the United States against very limited ballistic missile attack but almost surely would violate the Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Before heading down this path, the president must explain to the American people the strategic rationale for turning away from a generation of arms control and nonproliferation policy.
The administration took the first step down the slope when Defense Secretary William S. Cohen announced that the projected defense budget through 2005 would include funds for actual deployment -- not just research and development -- of a nationwide missile defense system. A deployment decision is not due until next year, but the Pentagon already is surveying possible sites in Alaska and North Dakota, and President Clinton has informed Russian President Boris Yeltsin that we might decide to develop a system that conflicts with the ABM Treaty.
If that decision is made, the United States would seek to amend the ABM Treaty to permit deployment of our system, while ensuring that it would not be able to thwart a major Russian attack. While Cohen affirmed that "the ABM Treaty is in our overall interest," he and other U.S. officials note that should such negotiations fail, we retain the right to withdraw from the treaty -- with six months' notice -- if our "supreme interests" are jeopardized.
Taken in isolation, these actions might be reasonable responses to a changing world. North Korea's attempted satellite launch last year raises a prospect that, within a few years, new countries could have missiles capable of delivering warheads to the United States. In this sense, the administration must be ready to proceed if a decision to deploy a missile defense is made next year.
From a strategic perspective, however, the administration has yet to make the case. Cohen predicted that "technological readiness will be the primary remaining criterion" in a deployment decision next year. But that omits several important concerns. Here are three basic questions that need to be addressed:
Will it work?
I'm a big believer in American know-how; but after 15 years of missile defense research and development, what have we to show for it? Our most developed theater missile defense system, aimed at missiles slower than intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), has failed every flight test against a target. We just postponed by two years the earliest deployment date for a national defense system. Is it wise to decide on deployment next year, before any tests of actual hardware? Will a "thin," ground-based system work against ICBM warheads mixed with decoys or other countermeasures? No one knows.
Is this the best way to ensure our security?
Even if a national missile defense becomes technologically feasible, will it be in our national interest to deploy it? Would tens of billions of dollars be better spent on maintaining deterrence through our offensive power, which has kept the nuclear peace for more than 50 years? Could we not persuade North Korea to end its long-range missile programs for a fraction of the likely price of a national missile defense? What factors, other than Republican political pressure and the looming 2000 election, impel a decision to deploy a national missile defense once "technological readiness" is achieved?
How will it affect strategic stability and nonproliferation?
The overriding strategic interest of the United States is to deter others from attacking with weapons of mass destruction. Deterring countries such as Iran and North Korea is surely part of this objective, but so is maintaining our deterrence relationship with Russia -- "strategic stability," in which neither side is tempted in times of crisis to engage in a first strike at the other. Equally important is the need to counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles.
The strategic arms control process, already threatened by the Russian Duma's inaction on the START II Treaty, could collapse because of Russian concern and anger over missile defense. To win Russia's assent on an amended ABM Treaty, the Pentagon may offer to scrap the ban on multi-warhead ICBMs, the capstone of START II. These missiles can overpower missile defense by delivering more warheads, which is why the Pentagon might offer the deal. But they also threaten strategic stability, as they present a lucrative first-strike target in a crisis.
Were strategic arms control to collapse, would the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty also be threatened?
The "grand bargain" of that treaty was that the nuclear-weapon powers would move toward nuclear sarmament in return for other countries' forbearance from acquiring such weapons. Progress in strategic arms control is our sign of good faith in this regard. Would a breakdown in arms control lead other countries to conclude that the limits on them no longer applied?
A "thin" national missile defense may be the best way to deter smaller countries that develop long-range missiles, while maintaining traditional nuclear deterrence with Russia. That is far from clear, however, and the administration has yet to present its strategic rationale. The time to make that case is now, before the slide down that slippery slope becomes irreversible.
The writer, a senator from Delaware, is the senior Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee.
ND Mr David Chaytor (Bury North): To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department, what contingency plans he has for dealing with the effects of premature re-entry of the space probe Cassini. (70455)
Mr George Howarth
The Home Office is the led government department for satellite incidents. Arrangements are in place to track satellites and advise local authorities and emergency services of any possible impact in the United Kingdom so that local response arrangements can be activated.
Current advice is that the space probe Cassini is unlikely to collide with Earth and is still less likely to hit this country.
My officials will, however, continue to monitor the situation.
************************
8th February 1999
From: Hansard, Monday 8 February 1999
Column: 50
Cassini Space Probe
Ms Oona King: To ask the Secretary of State for Trade and Industry what assessment he has made of the potential environmental risks of NASA's Cassini Space Probe. [69215]
Mr. Battle: Before launch, NASA have commissioned two independent risk assessments, and scientists of the European Space Agency, of which the UK is a member, independently evaluated the mission. The spacecraft design meets demanding safety criteria set by the United Nations and independent US health and safety organisations.
************************
WA8
US Anti-Ballistic Missile Programmes
Lord Kennet asked Her Majesty's Government: How many British defence firms are participating in United States anti-ballistic missile, ballistic missile defence and related programmes; and how many jobs depend on it.[HL742]
Lord Gilbert: The Memorandum of Understanding under which UK firms are able to participate in the US ballistic missile defence programmes provides for both government to government agreements, called Letters of Offer and Acceptance, and for contracts to be established between the US and UK firms and universities. No records are maintained by Her Majesty's Government as to the number of British defence firms involved and thus the number of jobs that might depend on any such involvement are unknown.
AND
The following question was tabeled to the EU Council of Ministers recently:
Question by Patricia McKenna (H-0088/99)
Subject: US breaching UN Conventions
What opinion does the Council have of, and how does it intend to react to, plans by the US Administration to deploy anti-ballistic missiles, in breach of the 1972 Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty*, and to the fact that the US Administration is developing, and is likely to deploy, weather-modification weapons** in breach of the 1977 ENMOD Convention (Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques)?
*US Administration announcement of 20 January that it had asked Congress for an additional USD 6.6 billion for the budget for national defence against military attack.
**'Weather as a force multiplier, owning the weather in 2025', presented to Air Force 2025, Col. Tamzy House et al., Air University, USA, August 1996.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/2025
Many people believe that deployment of nationwide missile defenses will have negative impact on prospects for nuclear disarmament. That's true. But there is an even more difficult problem: How do you get out of the mess once deployment has actually taken place?
The plans of the Clinton administration announced by Secretary of Defense Cohen on January 20 to proceed with preparations for deployment of a nationwide missile defense system by 2005 mean that the administration may well decide by mid-2000 on the deployment of a "thin" defense in two sites, necessitating extensive renegotiation with Russia on the ABM Treaty -- or U.S. withdrawal from the treaty.
The nearly certain result of missile defense deployment in the United States will be to freeze nuclear arsenals at their present or higher levels for decades to come, postponing deep cuts in nuclear weapons and blocking a stage where complete elimination of nuclear weapons can be seriously discussed.
These highly probable results of deployment mean that those interested in nuclear disarmament should join in strong opposition to deployment of missile defenses.
Background
Faced by these developments in U.S. policy, in the long run, Russia may agree to amend the ABM Treaty to permit two U.S. sites, as was the case with the original version of the treaty; Russia has a continuing interest in limiting the scope of United States missile defenses.
But in return, Russia will also very probably require U.S. acquiescence in maintaining the Russian arsenal at around the 2,000 warhead level, rather than going down to the 1,000 warhead level that has been urged by many Russians.
The 2,000 warhead level will be retained to assure Russia that it can still overcome a "thin" nationwide defense.
Russia will in turn argue that multiple warheads (MIRVs) be retained in order to enable Russia to maintain a 2,000 warhead level without having to spend a great deal of money in constructing new single warhead "Topol M" missiles.
(To do this, SS-19 multiple warhead missiles or even some of the heavy, dreaded SS-18 multiple warhead missiles would be retained in service until a new generation of Topol M multiple warhead missiles can be constructed and deployed.)
If these developments take place, the hope of reducing U.S. and Russian holdings of strategic-range missiles down to about 1,000 each in a few years through a START III Treaty and then bringing the other weapon states into negotiated reductions will have to be postponed indefinitely. China, which has repeatedly criticized the missile defense project, will probably decide to increase the size of its own nuclear arsenal in order to be able to surmount U.S. missile defenses and to maintain a deterrent. It may also develop MIRVs for its missiles if Russia retains them.
Once deployed, a "thin" nationwide defense can be fairly rapidly converted into a heavy nationwide defense and there will be continuing political pressure in the U.S. to do so. Fully effective, high capacity nationwide missile defense against all-out missile attack is probably impossible to achieve. Nevertheless, it is likely that other nuclear weapon states will follow worst case analysis and credit the U.S. with high capability. As a result of developments like these, nuclear disarmament will remain in indefinite stasis until some way around this obstacle can be found.
Can We Get Out of This Situation?
This is how the U.S. will march up the hill.
To evaluate the seriousness of the situation, we have to calculate what it may take to march down again on the far side of the hill toward renewed negotiation of deep nuclear cuts.
One way, the easy way, would be for the grossly inflated threat of rogue missile attack on the United States to collapse before U.S. missile defenses are fully deployed, perhaps with the collapse of the North Korean regime and with peaceful Korean reunification, with collapse of the Iranian threat through emergence of a less theocratic regime and improved U.S.-Iranian relations, as well as with replacement of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. Then, the U.S. might return to leadership of incremental nuclear disarmament and regain Russia's interest in deep cuts through the United States' main source of leverage with Russia - money.
A serious nuclear incident, such as an act of nuclear terrorism, might also restore the momentum of nuclear disarmament.
Other than these fortuitous developments, the remaining possibility for restoring momentum to nuclear disarmament is the emergence of a United States or Russian leader who actively presses for disarmament. Prospects here are not very promising now.
In the material sense, what would have to be done to march down the hill is either to dismantle the "thin" nationwide defenses or abandon them unfinished, as was done with the United States Grand Forks site when the ABM Treaty was signed by President Nixon in 1972.
Then, at the height of the cold war, the U.S. and Russia decided that deployment of nationwide defenses would result in increased deployment of offensive missiles. Now, after the cold war has wound down, this argument lacks force. As stated, deployment of a thin system (and apprehension that it could someday become a thick one), will probably freeze current warhead levels in Russia, and may somewhat increase them in China. But if this takes place, it is improbable that the increased nuclear deployments would be so large that they would mobilize opposition public opinion in the U.S. against missile defenses, or even that public opinion would at this stage be intensely interested in the general problem. Some segments of public opinion might be engaged earlier if they understood that the road to nuclear disarmament might be blocked for a long period.)
That is the point. This new situation, and especially the difficulty of reversing missile defense deployment once it has taken place, means that organizations and individuals who support elimination of nuclear weapons will have to become involved in the opposition to deployment of nationwide missile defenses.
Arguments Against Missile Defense
There are four main arguments against missile defense:
1) It is an expensive waste; the equipment thus far has failed its tests and it probably will not work; countermeasures by attackers will make the task of defense much harder.
2) The danger of rogue missile attack has been greatly exaggerated.
The contention that North Korea could produce a missile which could reach important areas of the U.S. has probably not been exaggerated.
What has been exaggerated out of all proportion is the implication that the damage that could be done by one or two North Korean missiles strike is equivalent to the danger to which the U.S. was exposed in the cold war nuclear confrontation with Russia.
In the cold war, the entire population of the U.S. and Russia and the northern hemisphere were at stake -- and possibly all life on earth in a global winter.
With North Korea, we are talking about one or two missiles with a small payload which probably would not hit their targets but which at worst could do damage in one or two restricted sites, leaving the U.S. fully able to retaliate with very strong conventional forces.
The administration should be pressed to give the U.S. public an accurate account of the limited dangers that actually face it from rogue ICBM attacks.
3) Given the current articulation of U.S. military strategy, the United States is itself increasingly dependent on its own missiles, especially cruise missiles, while trumpeting warnings over the dangers of missile proliferation and possible missile attack on the U.S.
Consequently, the U.S. has not undertaken measures to control missiles beyond the Missile Control Technology Regime, whose members are missile-producing governments.
The administration should now be pressed to move step-by-step toward a worldwide regime restricting production, possession and deployment of long-range ballistic missiles for military purposes.
One proposal is discussed in Jonathan Dean, "Controlling Ballistic and Cruise Missiles," Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue 31, October 1998.
4) Because the great damage from deploying missile defenses is to intensify competition in nuclear weapons, one possible way of mitigating the damage is to insist on maintenance of the ABM Treaty so that deployment of missile defenses can at least be limited rather than be allowed to develop into all-out competition.
Beyond this, it is argued by some that the safest way to move toward nuclear disarmament is to build missile defenses and then to agree on step-by- step nuclear disarmament, replacing deterrence with defense. Such defenses would not protect against attack by aircraft, cruise missiles, land-based rockets and artillery or terrorist action, all of which are more plausible than seriously damaging long-range missile attack or deal with other motives of the weaker states for retaining their weapons. Moreover, agreement to replace deterrence with defense would require the full trust among weapon states from the outset that is the hoped-for end result of step-by-step disarmament. It would also probably require a global missile defense system with global and completely standardized defense components available to all states willing to pay for them.
Even so, the U.S. and other rich countries could buy and deploy more defense systems than other countries -- to its potential military advantage. Consequently, there would have to be an agreed maximum limit per country based on some more or less equitable formula of population and area. All of this would not be an easy project and there is reason for real skepticism about this approach.
A more limited variant of this approach, intended to mitigate negative Russian reaction to U.S. deployment of missile defenses, would be for the U.S. to seek Russian agreement to collaborate on the development of missile defenses. The U.S. and Russia agreed in September 1998 to cooperate in warning of missile launches. But this approach would go beyond that limited agreement to require cooperation in the production of actual defenses. It is difficult to believe that such an undertaking could prosper when it comes to exchanging details of interceptor research, or that suspicious Russians would prefer it to maintaining high levels of Russian offensive missiles.
This brief review illustrates the real difficulty under today's conditions of getting rid of a missile defense system -- once it has been deployed -- in order to resume movement toward nuclear disarmament. It therefore makes clear the importance of energetic opposition to the deployment before it takes place.
If Canada joins the United States in a new plan to defend against missile attacks from rogue nations, it could violate a vital disarmament treaty between Russia and the United States, warns a confidential Canadian military report prepared for Art Eggleton, the Defence Minister.
Documents obtained by the Ottawa Citizen under the Access to Information Act also call into question whether the high-tech defence system proposed by the United States could even be used to protect Canadian territory.
The Canadian military wants to participate in the defence system by contributing space equipment and sensors for use by the North American Aerospace Defence Command. NORAD is the joint Canadian-American military alliance responsible for protecting the airspace of the two countries. Both armed forces want NORAD to play a key role in the new defence system, scheduled to be ready for 2005.
The proposed defence shield will use interceptor missiles to shoot down ballistic missiles headed for North America. The United States says it wants the missile shield to protect itself from ballistic rocket attacks by rogue nations such as North Korea and Iraq.
The Canadian government has yet to decide whether to back the plan.
A confidential briefing note prepared for Mr. Eggleton warns that the plan may violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty between the Americans and Russians, because, according to the document, the treaty does not allow for the participation of third parties, such as Canada, in a missile defence system.
The 1972 treaty was seen as one of the main ways to ease tensions between Russia and the United States during the Cold War, and stop the spread of new missile defence systems. It also set the stage for other treaties to limit nuclear weapons. Canada was not a signatory, although it supports the treaty.
Under the treaty, both the United States and Russia are allowed a limited number of interceptor rockets designed to destroy incoming ballistic missiles. The Americans do not have a working interceptor system. The Russians have a system in place around Moscow but it is not known if the ageing rocket force is effective.
The Russians have voiced concern over the new U.S. plan. An amendment to the treaty may be needed if Canada were to participate, something the Russians are unlikely to agree to.
A separate series of 1997 documents sent from the Pentagon to the Department of National Defence notes that if the missile defence system follows the strict guidelines of the 1972 treaty it would not be able to protect both Canada and all 50 U.S. states. But the documents, obtained by the Citizen, argue that the United States "should not deploy a substandard system just to be treaty compliant."
Bill Robinson, a defence analyst with the disarmament group Project Ploughshares, said Canada's participation in any U.S. system will endanger Canadian-Russian relations.
He said the Russian military is feeling particularly vulnerable because of massive financial and personnel cuts and will see this missile defence system as an attempt by western governments to gain an advantage over them.
Russia and other nuclear nations such as China could respond by building more and improved nuclear missiles in an attempt to get around the defences of the ballistic missile shield, Mr. Robinson said.
Besides, the danger of a ballistic missile being fired at North America by North Korea or Iraq is almost non-existent, he added. "This missile defence system is an unworkable solution to a ballistic missile problem that isn't even there," he said.
Jim Fergusson, a ballistic missile specialist, argues Canadian participation in the U.S. proposed defence system would not violate the 1972 treaty.
The Canadian military would simply be contributing space surveillance systems needed for NORAD and would not have hands-on control of the U.S. interceptor rockets, said Mr. Fergusson, deputy director of the University of Manitoba's Centre for Defence and Security Studies.
Canadian military documents point out that more than 20 countries now possess or are seeking ballistic missiles and many of these are also trying to acquire weapons of mass destruction. But the reports also note that "attacks from rogue states like Iran, Iraq or North Korea, which are the greatest concern, are not considered a risk for another 10 to 15 years."
More details from:
Bill Robinson, Project Ploughshares,
Conrad Grebel College, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada N2L 3G6
Phone: 519 888-6541 x264 Fax: 519 885-0806
E-mail: brobinson@ploughshares.ca
http://www.ploughshares.ca
Project Ploughshares is a member of the Canadian Network to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (http://watserv1.uwaterloo.ca/~plough/cnanw/cnanw.html)
The Canadian military wants to take part in a controversial U.S. plan to build a North American ballistic missile defence shield by contributing more than $600 million in space hardware.
Canadian Forces officials have been pushing for a role in the American national missile defence system since 1997, according to Access to Information documents obtained by the Citizen. Under the Canadian military plan its participation in the system would be deemed an "asymmetrical" role, where Canada would not directly fund the American missile defence shield but provide a variety of space and ground equipment for surveillance and other jobs to support the North American Aerospace Defence Command, or NORAD. NORAD currently does the job of watching over American and Canadian airspace.
According to the documents, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff want NORAD to take a key controlling role in the missile defence system if the Canadian government approves Canadian Forces participation.
Canadian participation in the American system, which would involve the construction of interceptor missiles capable of destroying ballistic rockets headed toward North America while they are still in space, was also recommended at a high-level meeting during a government retreat in Merrickville in November. That meeting involved Canadian military officials and government policy specialists.
The Canadian military's view is bound to clash with that of Foreign Affairs Minister Lloyd Axworthy, who has questioned the need for the missile defence system and whether it would violate existing U.S. treaties with the former Soviet Union.
The documents suggest a brewing cabinet battle over ballistic missile defence: One internal military report on the missile shield notes that Defence Minister Art Eggleton has expressed strong support for the NORAD alliance and the need for it to be "modified as necessary" to protect North America.
Publicly Mr. Eggleton has said the government will wait to make a decision on participation in the missile shield until the Americans are ready to deploy the system.
But the Canadian military documents warn that the U.S. will want an answer from the Liberal government on its participation either later this year or in 2000. Canadian Forces officials see contributing to the U.S. military space program as essential to maintain good relations between the two defence organizations and to continue the NORAD alliance.
The Canadian Forces failure to contribute to such space sensors and other space activities could lead to the demise of NORAD, with the U.S. military questioning Canada's contribution and deciding to do surveillance of its airspace on its own, according to reports. "To reduce the risk of this occurring, the Canadian government must provide a clear signal to the U.S. government in this regard," one Department of National Defence memo states.
"A timely and positive decision to participate in the missile defence of North America is considered the most definitive method of expressing Canada's interest."
To counter the possibility that Canada would be cut out of the NORAD system, the Canadian military has developed its Joint Space Project, a plan to spend $624 million over the next 12 years on a variety of space projects. Final details are still being worked out, but the space project could include surveillance of and from space, as well as warning radars and various other systems.
The military documents state the Joint Space Project is "separate but related" to the national missile defence system.
The Department of National Defence already has five ballistic missile defence research projects on the go and a Canadian defence scientist and officer have been working at a U.S. facility near Colorado Springs, Colorado on the simulation and evaluation of ballistic missile defence systems, according to the documents.
The Canadian Forces has spent about $875,000 on the research projects.
A separate Canada-U.S. Space Co-operation Working Group is examining suitable areas of co-operation between the two countries in support of the national missile defence system.
The U.S. government announced in January it would spend $10 billion U.S. on developing the technology to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles that might be fired from so-called rogue states like North Korea. The system, to be ready in 2005, would also protect against accidental launches of nuclear missiles by Russia. Once the technology is developed, the U.S. government would decide whether to build the system, but many defence analysts believe construction of the missile defence shield is inevitable.
According to the documents, American officials recommended that the Liberal government inform the Canadian public about the missile system and debate the issue at an early stage. But the Liberals rejected that idea, saying they will publicly deal with the missile issue when the system is ready to be deployed, rather than debate "theoretical concepts" associated with the shield.
Jim Fergusson, one of Canada's leading experts on ballistic missile defence, says the Canadian space plan is essential to maintaining good relations with the Americans and to continue protecting North America.
"The general view is that Canada would not make an economic contribution to national missile defence," said Mr. Fergusson, deputy director of the University of Manitoba's Centre for Defence and Security Studies. "Our role would be in being involved in what we've always done in NORAD, that is our participation in early warning. We'd be providing that central command and control centre where data from sensors would be fed out to American interceptor sites."
Mr. Fergusson said a Canadian space surveillance system would take "some of the burden" off the Americans. Failing to contribute to the U.S. military space program would be seen as yet another slap in the face to the Americans, he added.
In many circles in the U.S. military, Canada is seen as a freeloader on defence issues. At the same time, American officials have been angered by Canadian foreign policy on the landmine issue and nuclear weapons. Both have painted the U.S. as villains, Mr. Fergusson said.
In January, the U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Gordon Giffin, said Canada must spend more on defence in order to effectively take part in joint alliances such as NORAD.
Quietly, the Canadian military has been laying the groundwork for a space surveillance system to tie into American efforts. In November 1997, Canada's Chief of the Defence Staff, Gen. Maurice Baril, and then U.S. Air Force chief Gen. Howell Estes decided to expand U.S.-Canadian ties to include space surveillance, according to the documents. A Canadian-U.S. Military Space Co-operation Working Group in its report in 1997 also recommended the two defence organizations collaborate in development of command and control systems for the missile defence shield.
Documents covering the Canadian Forces space strategy also show that military officials are increasingly worried that North American defence in the future will rely more on space-based sensors rather than radars in Canada's Arctic. Several of the reports mention that American officials have pointedly told their Canadian counterparts that the days of having warning radars on Canadian soil are numbered because of the capability of future space sensors.
One briefing note to former defence minister David Collenette notes that the Americans are looking for a "tangible" contribution to their space effort, and failure to do that would hurt relations between the two countries.
In 1997, discussions with Pentagon officials, Canadian military officers suggested a variety of ways to help out the U.S. military's space effort, according to the documents.
Included was the building of radars or high-powered telescopes for surveillance of space to "reduce (the) workload" on the Americans. Another option looked at using a sophisticated radar system being developed on the Newfoundland coast to warn against low-flying cruise missiles that might be launched toward North America.
But disarmament specialist Bill Robinson said a ballistic missile defence system for North America would be impractical and a waste of money for Canada. He said if a rogue nation or terrorist group wanted to attack the United States it would do it secretly so it could not be traced.
One method would be to put a nuclear or chemical weapon on board a ship, sail it into an American harbour, and detonate it. "You wouldn't want to launch a ballistic missile because the Americans would know exactly where it came from and retaliate with everything they had," said Mr. Robinson, a defence analyst with Project Ploughshares.
He said there would be few consequences if Canada declines to take part in the U.S. missile system and does not believe the NORAD arrangement would be jeopardized.
"As long as we have radar warning information from our north to share with the Americans they'll share with us," said Mr. Robinson. "The only drawback I see from not taking part is that our officers won't feel like they're in the loop."
But Mr. Fergusson points out that the danger of a missile being fired from a so-called rogue state is the same for Canada as it is the U.S. It may be headed for a U.S. city but there's a possibility such a device could land or detonate near or on Canadian territory, he added.
Just as important is the need to support the ballistic missile defence system as part of the ongoing defence relationship with the Americans, Mr. Fergusson said. There is a view in the U.S. that Canada is not pulling its weight in defence matters, he noted.
Mr. Fergusson said it also would be impossible to separate NORAD functions at its Cheyenne Mountain, Colorado, complex from the system to be put in place for a missile shield.
At Cheyenne Mountain, where Canadian and American officers work side by side, are equipment for both NORAD and the U.S. Space Command's surveillance system. "You can't simply pull NORAD out of from ongoing developments, particularly centered on national missile defence, and still have NORAD useful and functional," said Mr. Fergusson. "As one American officer put it to me, 'If Canada is not in, then what are Canadian officers going to be doing in Cheyenne Mountain?' The answer is nothing."
Canada spends approximately $300 million annually on NORAD, about 10 per cent of the cost of the alliance. But Canada's contribution to NORAD is generally seen by Canadian military officials as a token amount for which they receive far more in return in the form of aerospace intelligence than is given.
Mr. Fergusson said if Canada fails to contribute to the U.S. military space effort, then NORAD will be jeopardized.
"In functional terms over a period of time it would be downgraded and eventually either fall into such insignificance or it would disappear," Mr. Fergusson said. "It won't happen overnight. But slowly things will start to change."
GENEVA -- The U.N. Secretary-General urged global disarmament negotiators Tuesday to ban sales of land mines and to prevent a nuclear arms race in outer space. Kofi Annan asked the 61-nation Conference on Disarmament to do all it could to ensure broad compliance with a land-mine treaty that takes effect in March.
The treaty, reached in Ottawa, Canada, in 1997, bans the use, stockpiling, production and sale of anti-personnel mines.
But Annan also urged the conference to create a new accord that would specifically prohibit sales of "these barbaric weapons."
More than 130 nations have signed the Ottawa treaty, but notable exceptions include the United States, which says it needs mines to help protect U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.
The United States is one of the main players at the Conference on Disarmament. Negotiators hope if the conference can agree on a limited ban on sales of land mines - to be followed later by wider prohibitions on their manufacture and use - then Washington would sign it.
Annan commended the conference for work it has done to limit nuclear weapons, including drafting a ban on testing them. The conference has made progress toward an accord to stop the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium needed to make nuclear arms, he said.
"You must now make full use of the momentum thus created and embark on meaningful negotiations for a non-discriminatory, multilateral and effectively verifiable treaty," Annan said.
He also suggested the conference address the issue of outer space quickly because more than 30 countries already have space programs, increasing the chance that one of them could station nuclear weapons in space.
"One concept which is now widely shared is that of maintaining outer space as a weapons-free environment," Annan said.
Annan also urged Russia to ratify the START II strategic arms reduction treaty with the United States.
WASHINGTON -- Having planned a major outlay for defensive missiles, the Clinton administration now faces a major diplomatic and military quandary with China. The sensitivities are so acute that the Clinton administration has twice delayed sending Congress a classified report on a proposed missile system to defend Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and the U.S. troops stationed in the region, officials said Thursday.
Anxieties arose when North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean on Aug. 31. They are behind general U.S. plans to develop and test a limited national system of missile defense, at a proposed cost of $10.5 billion over six years.
The development may also involve the renegotiation of agreements with Russia.
During a tour of Japan this month, Defense Secretary William Cohen met with top Japanese officials to discuss a joint venture to develop regional missile defenses. Immediately, the Chinese accused the United States of trying to start "a revival of Japan's military ambitions."
As a result, in Washington "They've gone over the draft several times," said one administration official who has seen the documents. "No one wants China to be offended."
After the North Korean missile firing, Japanese public opinion shifted nearly overnight toward supporting such a system and the Japanese Parliament approved joint research with the United States after years of quietly fending off U.S. proposals.
The launching of the North Korean missile with its greatly increased range also raised alarm in Congress and the Clinton administration. The 37,000 U.S. troops based in South Korea and nearly 50,000 others serving in Japan appeared far more vulnerable, officials said, to the improved North Korea missile system.
Since North Korea remains dependent on China, the administration immediately asked the Chinese to persuade Pyongyang to demonstrate that it would stop firing missiles over Japan, but to no avail.
China is directly at issue in the question of defending Taiwan, which is threatened only by Chinese missiles. Since the early 1990s China has more or less doubled, to several hundred, the number of missiles on the coast facing Taiwan. And any system protecting Taiwan would have to be crafted to neutralize those Chinese missiles.
That creates a double blow, in the Chinese view, that makes any proposed system look like an offensive weapon aimed at Beijing and not a shield against it.
"One of the biggest ironies of this debate is that it was China's client -- North Korea -- that brought this debate into full daylight and that is causing such problems for China," said Richard Armitage, a former Defense Department official.
Democrats and Republicans in Congress agree. By mandating the report last year, Congress asked the administration to describe, however vaguely, what a system would look like.
The missile defense plan is expensive and as yet unproved; it will be years before such a system could be ready, which is one of the arguments the administration is making to the Chinese to calm their fears.
But while administration officials continue to debate how to sell the idea to China, there is little doubt that the research will go ahead.
"It's not a question of whether we will do this," said Joseph Nye, former assistant secretary of defense in the first Clinton administration and now dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. "It will go ahead. The question is how we do it. What is open for discussion is the fine print about it. The Chinese should not overreact."
To critics who question why the United States is pushing ahead with a system that could add to the fraught relations between Washington and Beijing, congressional aides answer that the issue is North Korea.
Taiwan has yet to decide whether to join with the United States in the system. Taiwan already has Patriot missiles, and the price tag for undertaking the new missile defense research is high. The Japanese Defense Agency is expected to spend up to $260 million for its five- to six-year research project.
The administration plans to meet its latest deadline, after receiving two extensions, and give the classified report to Congress next week.
(See also: Missile defense to be ready in 2005
U.S. Seeks To Amend Arms Treaty)
The Clinton administration yesterday pledged $6.6 billion over five years to field a national missile defense system, reversing years of official skepticism about whether it was necessary or even possible to build a weapon that could detect and shoot down enemy missiles racing toward the United States.
Defense Secretary William S. Cohen said the system was needed to respond to a growing missile threat from North Korea and other nations. He said the administration would pursue the program, an heir to Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" proposals, even if Russia were to charge that it violates the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed by the United States.
"We are affirming that there is a threat, and the threat is growing, and that it will pose a danger not only to our troops overseas but also to Americans here at home," Cohen said.
Because a workable missile defense must still overcome daunting technological obstacles, Pentagon officials said a system probably could not be deployed until 2005, two years later than originally predicted. Officials said they would decide in June 2000 whether they had achieved the technological breakthroughs and assess whether military threats still warranted construction of the system.
The national anti-missile system, championed for years by congressional Republicans, currently is allotted $4 billion for research and development. The $6.6 billion announced yesterday, which will be included in the president's budget submitted to Congress next month, is to build the missiles, radars and buildings that would comprise the system, officials said.
Over the past two decades the United States has spent tens of billions of dollars on engineering a weapons system that could detect and blow up incoming missiles in midair. Versions under development by the Army and Navy to protect troops in the field have had repeated problems or are largely untested.
The national system envisioned by the Clinton administration includes a satellite-based sensor that would detect the exhaust of a foreign missile immediately after lift-off. Early warning radars in California, Alaska and Massachusetts would track its flight path. A ground-based radar likely to be located in Alaska then would target the missile, as would a ground-launched interceptor located nearby. Traveling at a speed of up to 25,000 mph, the interceptor would home in on the missile and fire small rockets to destroy it.
U.S. officials acknowledged that yesterday's announcement might cause Russian fears that the United States is violating its promise, enshrined in the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, not to build a defensive shield that would upset the nuclear balance between the two countries.
Administration officials said President Clinton wrote to Russian President Boris Yeltsin to notify him in advance of Cohen's remarks. The letter assured Yeltsin the announcement does not represent a commitment to deploy any anti-missile system and does not represent a change in the U.S. commitment to the ABM treaty, a senior official said.
Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright will explain the decision to the Russian leadership when she visits Moscow next week, an administration official said. She is planning to say that the world has changed since the ABM treaty was signed and that U.S. interests now require an interpretation that would be "a little less doctrinaire," the official said.
Cohen said yesterday that the system the Pentagon envisions may call for moving the single defensive monitoring site approved under the ABM treaty from North Dakota to Alaska or building more than one radar and interceptor site. If the Russians were unable to agree to that, he added, "then we simply have the option of our national interest indicating we would simply pull out of the treaty."
Cohen pointed out that the U.S. system would not be able to shoot down the thousands of warheads that Russia could launch against the United States. "The limited [national missile defense] capability we are developing is focused primarily on countering rogue nation threats and will not be capable of countering Russia's nuclear deterrent," he said.
The need for a national anti-missile system has been one of the main defense issues dividing Clinton from conservative Republicans, for whom it is a top priority.
"I am encouraged by and hope today's announcement really signals a change in administration policy," Rep. Curt Weldon (R-Pa.), a leading proponent of missile defense, said in a statement. "But I remain skeptical given the president's continuing lack of a firm commitment to proceed with deployment."
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), another leading advocate, welcomed the announcement. "I applaud them, I'm delighted," he said. "I think reality finally caught up with them."
In making its case yesterday, Cohen and others cited recent developments in North Korea missile technology, especially its August launch of a medium-range Taepo-dong missile. The missile included a third-phase booster, which fizzled in space but surprised U.S. intelligence agencies because it indicated that North Korea was closer to producing a long-range intercontinental missile than had been believed.
In July, a congressionally mandated panel chaired by former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld concluded that the threat of missile attack on the United States was "broader, more mature and evolving more rapidly than has been reported in estimates and reports by the intelligence community."
"The Taepo-dong I test was another strong indicator that the United States will, in fact, face a rogue nation missile threat to our homeland, against which we will have to defend the American people," Cohen said.
Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen announced today that the Defense Department plans to allocate additional funds to National Missile Defense (NMD) and Theater Missile Defense (TMD) programs to meet the growing ballistic missile threats from rogue states to U.S. forces deployed overseas and potentially to U.S. territory.
The new budget will request additions of $6.6 billion to current NMD funding levels for a total of $10.5 billion for NMD through fiscal year 2005. No decision to deploy a national missile defense system will be made before 2000. In theater missile defense, the new budget will continue flight testing of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) program and add money to the Navy Theater Wide program in order to allow accelerated deployment of an upper tier system by 2007.
"The Department of Defense has long worked to ensure that our NMD development program was properly funded. But until now, the Department has budgeted no funds to support a possible deployment of a limited NMD system," Secretary Cohen said.
"Since we intend to make a critical decision in June 2000 regarding deployment, the budget we will submit in February will increase NMD by $6.6 billion, including the cost associated with NMD deployment over the Future Years Defense Plan. This includes $800 million provided by Congress in the FY99 supplemental appropriations bill and nearly triples, to $10.5 billion, the amount we are budgeting for National Missile Defense," he said.
Last summer, the Department of Defense embarked upon a ballistic missile defense program review that assessed the evolving missile defense environment. The review addressed both the expanding threats from medium-range ballistic missiles and the emerging threat from long-range missiles.
"We are affirming that there is a growing threat and that it will pose a danger not only to our troops overseas, but also to Americans here at home," said Cohen. "Last spring, a commission chaired by former Secretary Donald Rumsfeld provided a sobering analysis of the nature of the threat and of limitations on our ability to predict how rapidly it will change. Then, on August 31, North Korea launched a Taepo-Dong 1 missile. That missile test demonstrated important aspects of intercontinental missile development, including multiple-stage separation, and unexpectedly included the use of a third stage. The Taepo-Dong 1 test was another strong indicator that the United States will, in fact, face a rogue nation missile threat to our homeland against which we will have to defend the American people."
A Deployment Readiness Review is scheduled for summer 2000 in order to assess the NMD program's progress and to provide information for a deployment decision.
"Our deployment readiness program has had two key criteria that must be satisfied before we could make a decision to deploy a limited National Missile Defense: there must be a threat to warrant the deployment, and our NMD development must have proceeded sufficiently so that we are technologically ready to deploy," Cohen said. "What we are saying today is that we now expect the first criterion will soon be met, and technological readiness will be the primary remaining criterion."
If deployment requires an amendment to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the United States will negotiate with the Russians in good faith. "While our NMD development program is being conducted consistent with the terms of the ABM Treaty, our deployment may require modifications to the treaty and the administration is working to determine the nature and scope of these modifications," Cohen said. "We have already begun environmental site surveys for potential basing sites in both Alaska and North Dakota, and we have briefed Russian officials on these activities," Cohen said.
Secretary Cohen also announced steps to advance the Theater Missile Defense program, which is designed to protect our troops and allies from short- and medium-range missiles. The Department recognizes the critical importance of both land-based and sea-based upper-tier systems in the overall TMD architecture.
Money will be added to the Navy Theater Wide program to move it from the development to the acquisition phase. The land-based Theater High Altitude Area Defense program will continue flight testing. However, recognizing the development problems associated with THAAD, and the very difficult task inherent in ballistic missile defense technology, both Navy Theater Wide and THAAD will be examined after initial flight testing to determine system progress. Based on this assessment, the Department will be prepared to reallocate upper-tier program resources to focus on the most successful program. To meet the existing and emerging threat, our objective is to field an upper-tier system capability by 2007. This would be an acceleration for either system. Currently, THAAD is scheduled for deployment in 2008 and NTW in 2010.
In addition, the Department will propose to restructure the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) program-a cooperative program with our German and Italian allies-to develop the essential technologies for critical maneuver force protection requirements.
"These new initiatives will help to ensure that we will meet existing and rapidly emerging ballistic missile threats as quickly and effectively as possible, and in a manner that is integrated with our overall defense requirements," Cohen said.
Missile Defense DoD News Briefing - http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/news99/t01201999_t0120md.htm
Secretary Cohen and Gen. Shelton, - January 20, 1999
I'm announcing today's decisions regarding how we'll decide to deploy a missile defense for America, how we'll address the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the ABM Treaty, and how we are restructuring some of our programs to enable us to deploy capable missile defenses as quickly as possible.
And while our NMD program is being conducted consistent with the terms of the ABM Treaty to date, our deployment might require modifications to the treaty and the Administration is working to determine the nature and the scope of these modifications.
The ABM Treaty could be amended, for example, to shift from the one site in North Dakota that was originally agreed to, to put that in Alaska.
It might require multiple sites.
DOD News Briefing, Missile Defense, 20 January 1999 - http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/news99/t01201999_tgen.htm
Lt. Gen. Lyles:
As announced by Secretary Cohen, we've acknowledged and affirmed that the threat is real, and it's become more certain and growing in the near future.
We've also acknowledged that we need to start dialogue and discussions with the Russians about the treaty, and activity is already underway to address that.
By the summer of 2000 we would not have tested the actual booster for our kill vehicle and the interceptor.
The kill vehicle itself, the exoatmospheric kill vehicle, will not be tested until a couple of years later, the final configuration.
Dr. Ted Warner:
We believe that the ABM Treaty has been amended in the past.
We believe that the type of system we are proposing does not fundamentally challenge the strategic nuclear stalemate between Russia and the United States, and will not challenge it, and we intend to engage the Russians on this matter to seek to amend the treaty in a way that will sustain it as a cornerstone of our relationship, but at the same time will in fact allow us to proceed.
DOD News Briefing Charts on Missile Defense, 20 January 1999 - http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jan1999/lyles_01201999.pdf [4 charts, 929k PDF].
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - After a six-day automatic shutdown of all but critical systems, NASA's Cassini spacecraft is operating normally again and will pass a major mission milestone today.
Cruising along on a seven-year journey to Saturn, the $2 billion probe will open its eyes on the universe for the first time, training its camera and other optical instruments on a constellation known as Spica.
The resulting photo-mosaic will be the first product of a routine instrument checkout that was interrupted earlier this week by a glitch in Cassini's navigation system.
Considered minor, the problem triggered an automatic shut down of most of the crafts systems.
"This is part of normal operations," said Mary Beth Murrill, a spokeswoman for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "This is what the spacecraft is supposed to do to keep itself out of harm's way."
Launched from Cape Canaveral in October 1997, the spacecraft put itself into a "safe mode" Monday after a problem cropped up with the star-tracking system it uses to navigate.
Engineers determined the shut down likely occurred when a guide star remained in the star-tracker's field of view for longer than anticipated during a routine maneuver.
Ground controllers Friday sent up computer commands that will turn all spacecraft systems back on. The instrument checkout can then resume late this morning, Murrill said.
Highly autonomous, Cassini is designed to turn off its critical systems whenever onboard computers detect a problem that could put the craft in jeopardy.
Ground controllers then can sort out any trouble that might threaten its $3.4 billion mission.
The subject of considerable controversy, Cassini is loaded with 72 pounds of plutonium - nuclear fuel being used to power to spacecraft systems during its long journey to the ringed planet.
In order to reach Saturn, the spacecraft is taking a circuitous route through interplanetary space.
Cassini already has flown by Venus once and will make another pass in June, using the planet's gravity to help hurl it to Saturn.
It also will use the gravity of Earth for an extra kick in August when it flies within 500 miles of home. The craft then will swing by Jupiter for another gravity-assisted push before its arrival at Saturn in July 2004.
Engineers should be able to put the Cassini space probe back in operation and back on track soon, following technical problems that caused the spacecraft to revert to safe mode earlier this week, NASA said Friday.
The problems began Monday at 2300 GMT when the probe detected a possible error in its spatial orientation and immediately suspended operations on all instruments not critical for its mission, said experts at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California.
Communication between Cassini and Earth have been maintained, however, according to the JPL official in charge of the mission, Bob Mitchell.
Mitchell said engineering data from the spacecraft were being transmitted to Earth to help engineers pinpoint what caused Cassini to enter the safe mode.
JPL said engineers suspect that during a tracking maneuver, Cassini's star scanner may have viewed a patch of sky without the bright stars the spacecraft uses to orient itself in space.
Software would have alerted the system when the scanner had spent sufficient time searching for but not spotting familiar stars.
Mitchell said he expects Cassini will be taken out of safe mode later this week after the problem has been identified and data thoroughly analyzed.
Cassini was launched on October 15 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, over the objections of anti-nuclear protesters who feared what might happen if the rocket exploded while carrying Cassini and its 72 pounds of poisonous plutonium.
The spacecraft, on a $3.4 billion mission through the solar system, is expected to reach Saturn in July 2004. It passed Venus last year and this year will use Venus again and then swoop within 500 miles of Earth, an encounter that also worries Cassini opponents.
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (Reuters) - Frayed electrical wiring was to blame for last year's $1 billion explosion of a Titan 4 rocket that carried a spy satellite, the U.S. Air Force said on Friday.
The powerful rocket and its top-secret cargo blew apart in the skies above Cape Canaveral on Aug. 12, 1998, in one of the most expensive space disasters in history.
A U.S. Air Force Space Command accident investigation board said the damaged wiring caused a short circuit that left the rocket's guidance systems without power for a fraction of a second.
The 20-story booster lost its sense of direction, tipped over and exploded in a shower of rocket fuel just 41 seconds after launch. At the time, the Titan 4 was travelling close to the speed of sound at an altitude of 17,000 feet.
"Electrical shorts in the ... wiring harness most likely caused the vehicle to catastrophically fail," the Space Command said in a statement. "The board found clear and convincing evidence that wire insulation damage existed."
For the first time, the Air Force confirmed that the mishap cost more than $1 billion. It said the Air Force and Lockheed Martin, the rocket's builder, have "taken actions to address the findings of the investigation."
Two Titan 4B rockets, a newer version than the 4A model that exploded, currently are being prepared for launch from Cape Canaveral, although the Air Force has yet to set any launch dates.
"We are proceeding with preparations, but are awaiting final approval to launch," an Air Force spokesman at Cape Canaveral said.
The spy satellite destroyed in August's explosion was being launched for the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office and, according to space experts, was to have listened in on foreign government and military communications in global hot spots.
(See also: "Saturn-bound spacecraft suffers glitch" USA Today, January 14, 1999 http://usatoday.com/news/digest/nd1.htm)
PASADENA, Calif. (AP) -- NASA's biggest and most complex interplanetary probe went into so-called safe mode this week when it detected a potential problem on its way to Saturn.
The plutonium-powered Cassini spacecraft remained in contact with its operations team. The probe sensed the possible problem Monday, triggering a program designed to halt non-critical activity, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said Wednesday.
The spacecraft began using minimum power and pointing its 12-foot antenna toward the sun to shade the rest of the spacecraft.
Program Manager Bob Mitchell said engineering data from the spacecraft are being transmitted to Earth to help engineers pinpoint what caused Cassini to enter the safe mode.
JPL said engineers suspect that during a tracking maneuver, Cassini's star scanner may have viewed a patch of sky without the bright stars the spacecraft uses to orient itself in space. Software would have alerted the system when the scanner had spent sufficient time searching for but not spotting familiar stars.
Mitchell said he expects Cassini will be taken out of safe mode later this week after the problem has been identified and data thoroughly analyzed.
Cassini was launched on Oct. 15 from Cape Canaveral, Fla., over the objections of anti-nuclear protesters who feared what might happen if the rocket exploded while carrying Cassini and its 72 pounds of poisonous plutonium.
The spacecraft, on a $3.4 billion mission through the solar system, is expected to reach Saturn in July 2004. It passed Venus last year and this year will use Venus again and then swoop within 500 miles of Earth, an encounter that also worries Cassini opponents.
Impeachment of the president is not the only issue dividing the Clinton-Gore White House and the Republican-controlled 106th Congress. The new Congress wants to fund programs needed for military control of space, while the White House wants to avoid the issue. Many in the Pentagon, preferring increased spending on military readiness and traditional weapons, would rather defer any big spending on space. Enter Sen. Bob Smith, New Hampshire Republican and chairman of the strategic subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who is determined to force the issue even if it means breaking up the Air Force and creating a Space Force. Strongly advocating the need for military power in space, the senator expressed his views in a speech in Boston on Nov. 18.
Sen. Smith said America's future security depends on space supremacy. While we are ahead in space now, our future dominance is not assured. We need a space control advocate within the government, who will press for the needed resources. The Air Force was to become that advocate, but it has not. Three years ago the Air Force published "Global Engagement," proposing to become a Space and Air Force. But now the service is retreating from its own vision.
It's new concept is to create an "aerospace force," in which air power is dominant and space systems just support air power.
This is a surrender by Air Force leadership to White House opposition to weapons in space. The Air Force wants to move into space while trying to accommodate the view that space is some pristine wilderness that must be kept free of weapons. This view of space is favored by those who fought President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) and continue to oppose all weapons in space.
President Clinton began by killing the White House Space Council, a body chaired by Vice President Dan Quayle that had effectively coordinated government space policy. Next, he converted the space-oriented SDI into a ground-based effort, ended programs to develop "Brilliant Pebbles" and other space-based defenses, and gave effusive support to the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty that bans space-based components of a national missile defense.
In 1997, he used the line-item veto (later ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court) to cancel three space control programs. He made an agreement with Moscow to ban anything that could intercept a theater ballistic missile from space, and abolished the Office of Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Space. Mr. Clinton's position is crystal clear: No U.S. weapons in space, offensive or defensive.
The problem facing the Pentagon is that it cannot control space without weapons. The administration gives lip service to the need for space control, but puts little money in the budget to pay for it. Mr. Smith bemoans the "paltry" investments in space power, noting he has to earmark funds to keep alive the military spaceplane, the kinetic energy antisatellite device, and the Clementine II space experiment.
The Air Force must assume the space power mission and allocate funds to it, says Mr. Smith, and this means shedding large chunks of today's Air Force to pay for tomorrow's. If the Air Force is unable or unwilling to change, Congress will have to create a Space Force, just as Congress created the Army Air Corps in 1926 and the Air Force in 1947. A separate service would fight for the resources needed to obtain space control weapons, which no one is doing now.
The senator hopes the Air Force will solve the problem by becoming a true Space and Air Force. But, he adds, the need for space dominance is too important to allow the bureaucracy or service parochialism to block it. Control of space will create security for this country for centuries to come, he says. Responding to Mr. Smith at a Dec. 23 breakfast for reporters, acting Secretary of the Air Force F. Whitten Peters said a Space Force is not necessary and would encounter the same space policy problems as the Air Force.
In other words, it is not the Air Force that is preventing the development of space weapons -- it is White House policy.
The arms control position on space appeared in an article by Sen. Charles Robb of Virginia, a pro-defense Democrat, who wrote correctly in the winter issue of the Washington Quarterly that putting weapons in space would be a remarkable advance and a true revolution in military affairs. But then he said the United States should deny itself this capability, to prevent an arms race in space. Yet, such self-denial would leave the United States with weapons to fight the last war instead of the next one.
In 1921, Gen. Billy Mitchell called for America to invest in airpower, but his vision was not shared by the national leadership. It took Pearl Harbor to motivate this country to build a modern air force. Mr. Smith may be today's Billy Mitchell -- raising the alarm about the need for space power. His congressional colleagues should heed his advice and reallocate enough defense spending to speed development of the space weapons that will be needed in the 21st century.
James T. Hackett is a contributing writer to The Washington Times based in San Diego.
Security at RAF Fylingdales has been stepped up with the installation of a new high security electric fence.
The new fence, the cost of which has not been revealed, will detect and deter illegal entry to the early warning station.
The need to enhance physical security was highlighted last year when criminal damage had to be repaired at public expense after peace campaigners illegally broke into the site.
The electric fence conforms to all national and international safety standards and according to a spokesman for RAF Fylingdales, "presents no danger to the general public".
Extensive on-site tests confirmed that the new fencing has no effect on the operation of the space tracking radar at he RAF station.
Fylingdales' Station Commander, Wing Commander Chris Romney, explained: "We set up a section of the fence, charged it up, put in various positions closer to the radar and further away and examined the effects on the radar. The whole idea of the fence is that it gives a powerful pulse to deter an individual and this particular type of fence is used in civilian circles - it's not a military fence."
WASHINGTON --Sixteen years after President Ronald Reagan envisioned a "Star Wars" program to protect the United States from ballistic missile attacks, President Clinton plans to pledge about $7 billion over six years to build a limited missile defense system, even though he will leave a final decision on whether to build it until later, officials said.
Clinton is not expected to decide whether -- and how -- to build a system until the summer of 2000. And at this point, no one has proved that such a system will work.
But the officials said the decision to set aside money in the Pentagon's budget now was meant to underscore the Administration's political commitment to the idea and to head off growing criticism from Republicans in Congress that Clinton was not doing enough to defend the nation from a missile strike.
Since Reagan unveiled his dream of creating an impenetrable shield against nuclear missiles in 1983, the nation has spent some $55 billion trying to develop a workable weapon -- so far to no avail. But never before has any money been put in the budget actually to build one.
The money, which officials put at roughly $7 billion, is part of the more than $100 billion in new spending Clinton is expected to propose giving the Pentagon between now and 2005 when he submits his budget to Congress next month.
The White House and Pentagon declined to discuss the spending proposal today, but the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Henry H. Shelton, signaled the Administration's intent at an appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.
General Shelton said the Pentagon had the resources to continue to develop the program. The Administration is "also putting money into the program so that at the time that we have the technology, if in fact the threat justifies it, then we could go ahead with the fielding," he said when questioned about Clinton's commitment to a missile defense system.
The system now being developed and tested is a mere shadow of the space-based network of satellites and lasers that Reagan envisioned to knock out even the largest Soviet nuclear strike. The Pentagon officially abandoned that concept in 1993 and has since concentrated on using ground- or sea-based missiles to intercept perhaps a few missiles launched either accidentally from a superpower like Russia or deliberately by a hostile nation like North Korea.
Even with a pledge of money, the effort remains burdened with economic, technological, political and diplomatic problems. And there are lingering doubts that one will ever be feasible.
The system faces a pivotal test in June. The program's developers, led by the Boeing Company, plan to launch a dummy missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base, in California, and try to destroy it in space over the Pacific Ocean with an interceptor missile fired from Kwajalein Atoll, in the Marshall Islands.
Three more tests are scheduled before Clinton makes a decision next year. Previous tests of interceptor missiles have failed, as have tests of shorter-range missiles, like those in the troubled Theater High-Altitude Area Defense program, or Thaad, run by the Army. But officials at the Pentagon express confidence that a limited system may at last be technologically at hand.
"Those of us who work in the program are very confident we're going to have a working system, and we're going to have it soon," Lieut. Col. Richard A. Lehner, a spokesman for the National Missile Defense Program, at the Pentagon, said today.
Republicans in Congress have long wanted to revive at least part of Reagan's original vision. Faced with Republican-sponsored legislation mandating the creation of a national system, Clinton promised to proceed with research for three years and decide in 2000 on whether the threat justified building a system by 2003, a policy referred to a "three plus three."
A Pentagon official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Administration had to include money in the Pentagon's future budgets or its promise to consider building a system would ring hollow.
"This is a recognition that we can't have our cake and eat it, too," the official said.
Others said the White House and Pentagon had concluded that the threat from intercontinental missiles from hostile nations was growing, noting North Korea's test of a three-staged missile on Aug. 31. Although Clinton and his aides have not yet made a decision, one senior Administration official said, "they're coming closer."
Representative Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania, a Republican and one of the strongest proponents of a national missile defense, said he would welcome a decision to put money in the budget. But Weldon said he remained skeptical about the President's motives and vowed to press again for legislation to build a system as soon as possible.
"It's certainly grudgingly coming around," Weldon said of the Administration. "I'm still not sure there's a solid commitment there."
Many arms control advocates argue that a system -- if someday workable -- would violate the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1972, which sharply limited the number, type and placement of missiles that could be used to counter enemy missiles.
Other critics argue that the effort squanders resources that could better spent trying to keep terrorists or hostile nations from ever acquiring the technology to develop weapons in the first place. And even within the Pentagon, there are those who argue that the real threat of nuclear attack against the United States is a terrorist armed with a warhead in a car or truck, not a nuclear-tipped missile fired from thousands of miles away.
"This does not seem to be a wise and balanced approach to U.S. defense needs," said Spurgeon M. Keeny Jr., president of the Arms Control Association in Washington.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. government and Intel Corp. have teamed up to develop a radiation-proof computer chip that could help shield satellites from nuclear blasts in space.
The new computer microprocessor is the result of work by Intel and the government's Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico.
Intel, the largest manufacturer of microprocessors, will provide the government with "existing technology that then allows them to go off and build a radiation-hardened product," said a source close to the deal, who spoke on condition of anonymity and would reveal no details about the chip.
Intel is scheduled to announce the new technology Tuesday at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California, with Energy Secretary Bill Richardson and NASA Administrator Dan Goldin expected to attend, the source said.
The trade newsletter Defense Week, in an edition being published Monday, said the new chip would one day enable systems aboard satellites and other space vehicles to withstand the effects of a nuclear detonation.
The article said U.S. intelligence agencies are increasingly worried about the possibility that a potential enemy could disrupt satellite surveillance and communications simply by firing a nuclear weapon straight up and detonating it in space.
Russell Hoffman of the "Stop Cassini Homepage" called Colette Brown, DoE, and confirmed that the November 4 deadline was a misprint and that the correct deadline date is now stated as January 4, 1999.
Nukes In Space 2: Unacceptable Risks provides an update on the Cassini space probe with 72.3 pounds of lethal plutonium on board, the scheduled August 1999 Cassini Earth "fly-by" and the consequences of an accident. It reports on NASA's planned additional plutonium missions and investigates the U.S. military's aim to "control space" and the Earth below with space-based nuclear-powered weaponry.
Nukes In Space 2, produced by EnviroVideo, is hosted and written by investigative reporter Karl Grossman, professor of journalism at the State University of New York, directed by Emmy Award-winner Steve Jambeck with Joan Flynn as associate producer.
Dr. Karl Z. Morgan, founder of the profession of health physics and former director of the Health Physics Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, states in Nukes In Space 2 that those behind the use of plutonium in space "are very brazen and almost inhuman in their attitude, willing to run the risk of imposing a catastrophe on Earth that man's never known before, where he cannot inhabit this space on our planet for the next million years_It is inconceivable to me that you would allow such high-risk of plutonium contamination on the Earth."
Alan Kohn, a 30-year NASA veteran and a long-time emergency preparedness officer for NASA, says in Nukes In Space 2: "The people should rise up and protest this. We should not allow our democratic government to do this to us. It is our responsibility and our duty to prevent them from putting us at risk. We have to stop them. They won't stop themselves."
Nukes In Space 2 tells how the Cassini plutonium fueled space probe, launched by NASA in October 1997, is slated to come hurtling back from outer space on August 18, 1999 at 42,300 miles per hour to buzz the Earth less than 500 miles high in a "gravity assist" or "slingshot" maneuver so it can reach its final destination of Saturn.
It presents NASA's own acknowledgement in its Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Cassini Mission that if Cassini makes an "inadvertent reentry" into the Earth's atmosphere during the "flyby," the probe will break up, plutonium will disperse and "approximately five billion of the estimated 7 to 8 billion world population at the time_could receive 99 percent or more of the radiation exposure."
Dr. Michio Kaku, professor of nuclear physics at the City University of New York, declares in Nukes In Space 2 that NASA could have substituted a solar energy system for plutonium power on Cassini by shaving off just 1 percent, about 130 pounds, from its weight. Former NASA scientist Dr. Ross McCluney agrees and cites a "lack of vision at the highest level of NASA. I think they have another agenda behind-the-scenes."
The manufacturers of plutonium space systems, General Electric and now Lockheed Martin, the U.S. government's string of national nuclear laboratories involved in fabricating the systems, and the U.S. Department of Energy, have all been pushing nuclear power in space. There is also a military connection, according to Nukes In Space 2. "Star Wars is the name of the game," declares Dr. Kaku in this documentary.
Nukes In Space 2 probes the Pentagon's plan to deploy weapons in space. It reveals a U.S. Air Force report, New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 2lst Century, which states, "In the next two decades, new technologies will allow the fielding of space-based weapons of devastating effectiveness to be used to deliver energy and mass as force projection in tactical and strategic conflict_lasers with reasonable mass and cost to effect very many kills." However, says New World Vistas, there are "power limitations" currently for such weaponry. "A natural technology to enable high power is nuclear power in space," it declares.
Nukes In Space 2 explores the U.S. Space Command's desire to become "master of space" in order to "control space" and the Earth below. It exposes the U.S. Space Command's Vision For 2020 report that describes the command's mission as "dominating the space dimension of military operations to protect US interests and investment."
Among others appearing in Nukes In Space 2 are: Dr. Helen Caldicott, president emeritus of Physicians for Social Responsibility; Dr. Ernest Sternglass, professor emeritus of radiological physics at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine; Dr. Rosalie Bertell, president of the International Institute of Concern for Public Health; Harvey Wasserman of Greenpeace U.S.A.; Helen John of the Menwith Hill Women's Peace Camp; editor Loring Wirbel; Bill Sulzman of Citizens for Peace in Space; and Bruce Gagnon and Regina Hagen of the Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space.
Nukes In Space 2 also shows how the use of nuclear power and planned deployment of weapons in space are illegal under the Outer Space Treaty.
Nukes In Space 2 follows EnviroVideo's 1995 video documentary, Nukes In Space: The Nuclearization and Weaponization of the Heavens, which received three major film and video festival awards including the Worldfest Gold Award at the Houston International Film and Video Festival, the world's largest film and video festival.
TO OBTAIN A COPY OF NUKES IN SPACE 2: UNACCEPTABLE RISKS
Send $19.95 +$2(s&h) to: EnviroVideo, Box 311, Ft. Tilden NY 11695
or call EnviroVideo 1-800-ECO-TV46
Email: envirovideo@earthlink.net
In the UK contact Yorkshire CND
22 Edmund Street, Bradford BD5 OBH
Tel 01274 730795
Email: cndyorks@gn.apc.org
Copies of the video can be purchased (£17 each) or rented (£5) - (see: Space Campaigning Resources).
For more information visit the Stop Cassini Earth Fly-by Action Site:
http://www.nonviolence.org/noflyby/
By James Long of The Oregonian staff - http://www.oregonlive.com/todaysnews/9811/st112709.html
In a move that is raising an outcry from environmental groups, the federal government is considering a role for the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in the U.S. space program.
The Department of Energy, which makes plutonium-powered electrical generators for NASA and military spacecraft, is thinking of relocating its production plant from Ohio to Hanford, in southeast Washington. The agency also is considering reopening a Hanford research reactor, the Fast Flux Test Facility, to manufacture plutonium-238, a rare and hugely expensive isotope that runs the generators.
The generator assembly plant could mean as many as 120 jobs and a $6 million payroll for the former nuclear weapons complex. If Hanford also restarted the Fast Flux reactor to make Pu-238, an additional 400 to 600 jobs would be created, with a payroll of as much as $30 million.
But Hanford has competition for both projects. The Energy of Department is considering five other sites for the generator assembly plant, including the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory near Idaho Falls.
The Idaho facility and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory near Clinton, Tenn., also are in the running as possible sites for irradiating neptunium "targets" to produce Pu-238. Oak Ridge and Hanford are under consideration for fabricating and processing the targets.
A dozen activist organizations oppose relocating the generator project to Hanford, particularly if it includes reopening Fast Flux.
"It would take us back to plutonium production," said Tom Carpenter, a Seattle lawyer for the watchdog Government Accountability Project.
Carpenter worries not only about the environmental problems of an active reactor, such as the creation of nuclear waste, but also what he said were unanswered questions about operating an unconventional reactor in modes for which it was not designed.
Fast Flux was completed in the 1970s for research into fuels and materials for fast-breeder reactors that were never built. Those reactors were designed to create more nuclear fuel than they used.
Carpenter said isotope production would require running the reactor harder than normal, using highly enriched fuel. He said critics, including engineers within the Energy Department, think this could make the reactor harder to control and increase the risk of an accident.
But the Energy Department said that, in any event, it could not reopen Fast Flux without proving its safety to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
The possibility of using Fast Flux to make Pu-238 was proposed less than two months ago, while Energy Secretary Bill Richardson was still studying a proposal to restart the reactor to make tritium for nuclear weapons. Tritium, a heavy form of hydrogen, has a half-life of only 12.3 years and must be replenished regularly to assure the reliability of the bombs. The United States quit making tritium in 1989 and has maintained its nuclear stockpile by scavenging the hydrogen isotope -- the "H" in H-bombs -- from retired weapons.
That option will soon run out, and the department is studying several new sources, including the Fast Flux. The earlier proposal would use the reactor to create tritium and new medical isotopes for treating cancer and other diseases.
But the Pu-238 proposal presents a conundrum: For the Hanford reactor to make economic sense, Energy Department officials said, it would have to manufacture tritium for the bomb program. But creating Pu-238 would take up almost the whole capacity of the reactor, leaving little room for making tritium.
Al Farabee, manager of the mothballed reactor, sees no possibility that Fast Flux could simultaneously meet U.S. requirements of 2 to 5 kilograms annually of Pu-238 for spacecraft and 1.5 kilograms of tritium for bombs.
A Pu-238 program, by itself, could not be justified economically, Farabee said, although medical isotopes could be made alongside the Pu-238 or beside the tritium.
But the medical isotopes would be largely experimental and would not have enough of a market in the near future to help pay for the reactor.
Farabee said that operating the Fast Flux reactor would cost $80 million to $90 million annually to operate Fast Flux.
If Hanford is chosen only to assemble the space generators, Energy Department officials said, the work would be done at the half-billion dollar Fuel and Materials Examination Facility, which was built alongside the Fast Flux reactor in the 1970s but never used. Encapsulated Pu-238 fuel elements would be shipped to Hanford from the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.
If the Fast Flux reactor is reopened to make Pu-238, several scenarios are possible. The neptunium targets that are bombarded with neutrons in the reactor to make Pu-238 could be shipped off site, possibly to Oak Ridge, for chemical reprocessing to recover the plutonium and recycle the neptunium. Pu-238 oxide powder would then be shipped to Los Alamos, encapsulated in irridium and forwarded to Hanford.
The entire operation also could be done at Hanford. According to an Energy Department study, processing the neptunium targets to obtain as much as five kilograms of Pu-238 annually would create about 4,000 gallons of high-level nuclear waste. But that amount is dwarfed by the more than 50 million gallons of waste in 177 huge underground tanks at Hanford. The Energy Department is building a multibillion dollar vitrification system to turn that waste into glass. That system also would be available for space generator waste.
The United States gets its Pu-238 from stocks that were created at South Carolina's Savannah River weapons complex before 1989 and from Russia. In 1992, the Energy Department signed a contract with Russia to buy as much as 40 kilograms for the space program. But the continuing turmoil in Russia has cast doubts on the reliability of the supply, leading to the current plan to resume domestic production.
To: "David Lavery, NASA Headquarters"
Subject: Comments for Europa Orbiter EIS
Dear Mr. Lavery,
NASA plans to launch the EUROPA ORBITER and the PLUTO-KUIPER EXPRESS missions in November 2003 and December 2004, resp.. As stated in the Federal Register, Vol. 63, No. 194, both missions "would include the use of a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) and approximately 50 [80 for Pluto-Kuiper Express, R.H.] Radioisotope Heater Units (RHUs). "The text also states that "the spacecraft would carry substantially less radioactive material (plutonium dioxide) than used in a single 'conventional' radioisotope thermoelectric generator." As the conventional RTGs used appr. 11 kg Pu-238, I assume that the new RPS system would require >5 kg plutonium dioxide.
NASA's intention to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for this mission is accompanied by DoE's call for input for an EIS "for the proposed production of plutonium-238 (Pu-238) using one or more DoE research reactors and facilities (). The Pu-238 would be used in advanced radioisotope power systems for potential future space missions." (quotation from a postcard from DoE announcing a Scoping Meeting for the plutonium-238 production).
I recently received yet another piece of information which fits into NASA's and DoE's plans. The Detroit News ran an article on October 29, 1998, with the titel "Ann Arbor firm aims for Pluto." The article tells about the development of Advance Modular Power Systems Inc.'s efforts to develop and eventually produce an Advanced Radioisotope Power System (ARPS) using alkali metal thermal to electrical conversion (AMTEC) to "convert heat that is suuplied by plutonium into electrical power."
So the picture is clear: DoE wants to product the Pu-238 which is needed for the new RPS systems which are planned to be used for the Europa Orbiter and Pluto-Kuiper Express missions.
In context with last year's Cassini mission, much has been said about the dangers of using Pu-238 for space missions. As I am not a medical doctor, a nuclear phycisist, or a mechanical engineer, there is little I can add to the objections brought forward by many individuals and organizations who oppose(d) the exploration of Saturn for the sole reason that they considered the danger of an accident which might involve the RTGs too high.
I am member of the Darmstaedter Friedensforum, a small citizens' group dealing with peace issues. Last year, we were co-organizers of the Cassini protests in Germany. It's not that we oppose scientific space exploration in general. We oppose using dangerous technology to do so. The planets - and in the case of Europa - their moons have been there for billions of years and they will be there to be explored a long time still. We suggest to NOT conduct scientific space missions which require the use of nuclear energy. In another 50 or 100 years, our descendants might have invented new power-producing technology which works at the distance of Pluto or under the atmospheric conditions of Europa without using nuclear materials. So we consider it wise to leave exploration which can't be done in a safe way today for our children or grand-children.
I recently did extensive research about past and future space missions which use(d) nuclear systems to produce electrical power. Altogether, I collected information about 71 U.S. and Soviet/Russian nuclear powered space missions. My finding show that 10 of these missions encountered accidents or serious problems. This means that the odds of an accident involving a nuclear powered space missions are 7:1. (I will send a hardcopy of my report to you by snail mail.)
My findings show clearly, that nuclear powered space missions are not safe enough to be justified. Therefore, I decidedly object against both the Europa Orbiter and the Pluto-Kuiper Express missions.
Please keep me informed about any further action taken with respect to the EIS process for both missions.
To conclude, I would like to repeat the criteria for space missions which together with my peace group I started promoting at the Darmstadt Cassini protest demonstration on October 4, 1998. The fifth criteria is clearly a show stopper for both of the planned NASA missions.
Sincerely
Regina Hagen
Teichhausstrasse 46
D-64287 Darmstadt
Germany
regina.hagen@jugendstil.da.shuttle.de
Tel. [49] 6151/47 114
Fax [49] 6151/47 105
Intense Meteor Shower Threatens Damage to Satellite Fleet
The most intense meteor shower in 33 years is threatening to sandblast America's multibillion-dollar satellite fleet, including military spacecraft that provide vital support for the U.S. military deployment in the Persian Gulf.
On Tuesday, the Earth will pass through the Leonid meteor storm, a cloud originating from the dusty passage earlier this year of comet Tempel-Tuttle.
A blizzard of meteor particles, some the size of sand, but mostly smaller, will rain down on the planet for about 10 hours. The most intense part of the storm will peak at about 2:45 p.m. EST.
There is no threat to people because the space particles burn up in the atmosphere before reaching the ground. In fact, in Asia and the western Pacific, where it will be nighttime, the storm will create a spectacular celestial show of light streaks and "shooting stars."
In the vacuum of space, where the nation's satellite fleet orbits the Earth, particles from the Leonid meteor storm will flash past vulnerable spacecraft at more than 155,000 mph. At that speed, a small grain can have the destructive force of a .22-caliber bullet.
The most likely damage could be electrical. The high speed impact of a tiny meteor creates a sudden electrical discharge that can cause the satellite to short out. If the electrical charge is big enough, it could permanently disable the craft.
Few actual collisions are expected, but operators of some 300 U.S. military, commercial and scientific satellites are crossing their fingers.
"We rate the possibility of anything catastrophic as being minimal, but we can't rule it out," said Air Force Maj. Perry L. Nouis of the U.S. Space Command at Peterson Air Force Base, Colo., the mission control center for the nation's 150 or so military satellites.
Nouis said military experts estimated that one or two of the world's 600-plus satellites will be destroyed by a meteor during the Leonid storm.
Nouis said that all the U.S. military satellites will continue to operate through the meteor storm. The satellites facilitate communication, navigation, surveillance and missile warning worldwide.
With American forces in the Persian Gulf poised to attack Iraq, there is a heavy demand for the satellite services, but Nouis said, "We are prepared to carry out our mission" through the Leonid storm. Even if a single craft is lost, he said, there are backup spacecraft for each system.
Among the satellites most at risk are communications satellites, typically stationed at 22,300 miles above the Earth, and the Global Positioning Satellites, which are 11,000 miles out.
"Those satellites pretty much have to fend for themselves," said Nouis. "The defensive measures have to have been built into the systems."
Most U.S. military satellites have been "hardened," shielded against the effects of nuclear radiation. They are expected to withstand all but the most unlucky hits by the speeding meteors.
The 22 satellites controlled by NASA, however, are more vulnerable.
"We are taking some precautions with all of them," said Phil Liebrecht, chief of the satellite control office at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.
Six $500 million Tracking and Data Relay System satellites will alter their position so they present the smallest possible target to the speeding meteor dust.
Liebrecht said other satellites will rotate solar power panels so that they face the storm edge-on. Other spacecraft will be powered down for at least part of the 10-hour passage through the Leonids.
Liebrecht said NASA is most concerned about two satellites that are stationed a million miles from the Earth toward the sun. Both craft are designed to study the sun and were placed where they get the best view. Now they will be in the most intense part of the Leonid meteor storm, he said.
"It looks like there is about a 1 percent chance that they will get hit and have something go wrong," said Liebrecht.
All high voltage instruments on the two craft will be shut down to minimize the risk of an electrical short. Solar arrays will be rotated to a protective attitude.
For NASA craft in lower orbits, such as the Hubble Space Telescope, the odds of damage from a meteor impact are calculated at about one in 10,000, Liebrecht said.
Even so, the Hubble, filled with delicate optics, will be turned so that its back is toward the Leonids.
Meteor showers from the dusty wake of comets are fairly common. In fact, the Earth annually crosses the path of Comet Tempel-Tuttle and encounters the Leonids. What makes this year exceptional is that Tempel-Tuttle sped past the Earth's orbit in February, leaving behind a fresh wake of dust and gas. This happens only every 33 years.
Liebrecht said that the last time Tempel-Tuttle went by, in 1966, it left an even denser path of debris, setting off a spectacular show of shooting stars.
At the time, though, the Space Age was in its infancy and only a handful of satellites orbited the Earth.
OSS intends to prepare Environmental Impact Statements for the future Europa Orbiter and Pluto/Kuiper Express missions. We have posted the announcements from the October 7, 1998 Federal Register, in Adobe .pdf format, at http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/oss/announce/OP_NOIs.pdf
Interested parties are invited to submit written comments to NASA on or before December 18, 1998, to assure full consideration during the scoping process. Comments must clearly identify to which NOI they are directed, i.e., Europa Orbiter or Pluto-Kuiper Express.
Having begun their nuclear assault on Saturn, NASA has announced that it intends to attempt an assault on PLUTO next.
NASA Notices 98-136 and 98-137 are about "RPS" nuclear power supplies for the Europa Orbiter mission and the Pluto-Kuiper Express mission. They are Notices of Intent to prepare Environmental Impact Statements and to conduct "scoping".
There is only until November 23rd 1998 to respond to these requests for public comment regarding the proposed EISs. The "scoping" phase has until December 18th, 1998. In both cases, notice was originally made on October 7th, 1998 but it has taken several weeks for letters to arrive from NASA, severely cutting down the time to respond.
NASA should abandon both of these nuclear-powered missions and use solar power (ESA now claims that this is possible). However, NASA makes up the "need" for deeper and deeper missions just to force the need for nuclear power! Just to have a reason to set up the system for extracting the plutonium 238 dioxide and developing the power supplies. And why do they want to have this capability? For military missions!
Instead of concentrating on what they could study safely, NASA pretends it is essential to flit from planet to planet to planet, and to hell with anyone who thinks the risks aren't worth the gains.
Pluto! And what does NASA say we'll learn? The usual: "The origin of life."
This is their excuse for virtually every single mission since Gemini. The secret of life. This they claim they will discover. How many lives will it cost to learn this secret? And how far from Earth do we need to go to discover it, when we haven't even explored the Tonga Trench in any great detail (but which, not coincidentally, NASA uses as a nuclear dumping ground)?
Pluto is over 3.5 billion miles away. There, NASA believes we will find the secret of life. At a potential cost of millions of lives.
At the time of Cassini's launch last year, NASA claimed their next generation of nuclear power source would use "only" 20% of the plutonium used by the current generation of RTG, for the same amount of electricity. But even this is too much to allow.
NASA should be stopped dead in her tracks before she stops us dead in ours.
The NASA contact person for these two comment periods is:
Mr. David Lavery
Advanced Technology and Mission Studies Division (Code SM)
Office of Space Science
NASA Headquarters
Washington DC 20546-0001
Comments must be submitted on or before November 23rd, 1998! The Notices of Intent were published in the Federal Register (Vol. 63, No 194, pp. 53938 - 53939). "Scoping comments" must be submitted by December 18th, 1998 and directed to the person named above. The notification adds that written comments must clearly identify which of the two NOI they are directed at. Email will be accepted but written comments are preferred. No phone numbers are provided.
The email address to comment on the Europa Orbiter mission is given as: osseuropa@hq.nasa.gov
The email address to comment on the Pluto-Kuiper Express mission is: osspluto@hq.nasa.gov
Be sure to "cc" your elected officials and local newspapers as well.
STOP CASSINI Web Site
http://www.animatedsoftware.com/cassini/cassini.htm
Column: 291
Ballistic Missiles
Mr. Alan Simpson: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence, pursuant to his answer of 27 October 1998, Official Report, column 112, if he will list the areas of common interest the United Kingdom has with the United States of America in connection with ballistic missile defence research; and if he will give the establishments at which the research is undertaken.
Mr. George Robertson: The areas of common interest the UK has with the USA in connection with ballistic missile research are many, the most significant being, performance of radars and other sensors, the guidance of interceptors, understanding the characteristics of ballistic missiles, the effective interception of ballistic missile warheads, and operating in coalition with Allies in air defence. The Defence Evaluation and Research Agency leads the programmes, working in close partnership with UK industry.
Mr. Colvin: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence what consultations he has carried out during his review of ballistic missile attack risks to the United Kingdom; and when he plans to produce his report. [57916]
Mr. George Robertson: Britain's approach to Ballistic Missile Defence was considered as part of the Strategic Defence Review. Supporting Essay 5, published as part of our report on the Strategic Defence Review, set out our conclusion that the risk to Britain from the ballistic missiles of nations of concern was many years off. This conclusion was based on a careful review and assessment of the intelligence information available to the Ministry of Defence from a variety of sources. As indicated in the Essay, we are continuing to monitor the position, and remain in close touch with our Allies.
Separately, we have undertaken a detailed review of other capabilities required to maintain a coherent national defence response to the risks posed by nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, also referred to in the discussion of defence responses to proliferation in Supporting Essay 5. The conclusions of this review will be given to the House shortly.
Now available from the STOP CASSINI web site.
The most complete single chronological history of nuclear power in space, past, present and projected future.
A chilling document that anyone interested in this movement should be aware of.
It is available as a Microsoft Word document in "ZIP" format, though it is likely to be turned into a web document soon.
Get your copy from: http://www.animatedsoftware.com/cassini/zips/rh9810fp.zip
Column: 112
Star Wars
Mr. Alan Simpson: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence what involvement Britain has in the continuing US SDI-star wars programme. [55788]
Mr. George Robertson: Britain's involvement in the US SDI-star wars programme (now known as Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD)) consists of research into BMD technologies where there is a common interest.
From:Steve Christianson (802) 864-6132, Charlotte Dennett-Esq. (802) 524-4918
Burlington, VT - On October 20, 1998 the trial ended for the seven defendants who choose to proceed with a jury trial from their anti-Cassini office take over of Senator James Jeffords(VT-R) last October.
The trial lasted two days, ending in 1 not-guilty and 6 guilty verdicts.
The defendant's, known as the Cassini 10, were part of a demonstration, in Oct. of 97, against Senator Jefford's policy regarding the Cassini space probe.
The defendants were denied the use of the necessity defense earlier in the year and choose to proceed ahead with the jury trial.
Defendant Eben Marikova-Gold's original charge of attempted un-lawful trespass was dismissed by the judge on lack of substantial evidence.
The jury also acquitted Mr. Marikova-Gold of un-lawful trespass.
The remaining defendants were found guilty of unlawful trespass.
A sentence hearing will be set by the court sometime in the near future.
The state had five witnesses testify in the trial, 2 of Jefford's office staff and 3 Burlington Police officers.
The state was successful, with lots of help from the judge, in not allowing the jurors to take into consideration the defendants motives, reasons or intentions in their deliberations on the verdict surrounding this case.
The defendants did not call in any witnesses other than themselves, due to the censorship placed on them by the judge.
Defendants Jacob Leach, C.J. Andersen, and Clarissa Rogers all took the stand in defense of their case.
The court forbid the defendants from discussing any of the specifics regarding the Cassini space probe.
The judge threatened contempt of court for specific mention by any of the defendants or attorneys regarding the 72.3 pounds of plutonium, the flyby that is expected to occur in August of 1999, NASA's Environmental Impact Statement or the Titan IV rocket that blew up on August 12th, 1998.
Three of the defendants proceeded in this trial as pro-se litigants.
In their closing remarks, all three stated, "we aren't concerned about our fate in court, but instead we're concerned about the fate of humanity."
Christianson
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has given a Notice of Intent to Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Proposed Production of Plutonium-238 for Use in Advanced Radioisotope Power Systems for Future Space Missions (DOE/EIS-299).
The DOE intends to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to assess the potential environmental impacts of establishing a domestic
capability to produce Pu-238 including the storage of neptunium-237
(Np-237), fabrication of Np-237 targets, irradiation of targets to produce
Pu-238, and the processing of these targets to isolate the Pu-238 and
recycle the Np-237. The Pu-238 would be used in advanced radioisotope power
systems for potential future space missions. Without a long-term supply of
Pu-238, DOE would not be able to provide the radioisotope power systems that
may be required for these potential future space missions, and the
Department would not fulfill the intended space nuclear power role assigned
to the Department in the National Space Policy statement issued on 19
September 1996. This assigned role of maintaining the space nuclear
capability is also consistent with the Department's charter under the Atomic
Energy Act of 1954, as amended. Alternatives to be analyzed for the
fabrication of Np-237 targets and for processing the irradiated targets
include the use of the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center in Oak
Ridge, Tennessee, and the Fuels and Materials Examination Facility at the
Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Alternative facilities for the
irradiation of targets for Pu-238 production include the Advanced Test
Reactor near Idaho Falls, Idaho, the Fast Flux Test Facility at the Hanford Site, Washington, and the High Flux Isotope Reactor in Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
The public scoping period begins with the publication of this Notice of
Intent and will continue until 4 November 1998. Public scoping meetings will be announced as soon as determined but at least 15 days prior to the date of
the meetings.
Comment period begins Oct 5 and ends Jan 4 1999
Telephone 301-903-6924
October 6, 1998
On Sept. 18, 1998, the possible delay of the next flight test of the
Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system
was announced due to a concern involving a component on the
missile's seeker. In subsequent analysis Lockheed Martin Missiles
and Space Company, Sunnyvale, Calif., determined a need to
delay the flight test for approximately three months to allow
replacement of the parts and checkout in ground testing.
Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space Co. is the prime contractor
for the THAAD missile system.
Contamination was discovered in the operational amplifier
(OpAmp) during extensive ground testing by the prime
contractor. The OpAmp is a small device in the missile's
flight seeker which, if contaminated, could cause a short
circuit resulting in seeker failure. The contamination was
found to exist in several of the OpAmps of a particular lot.
The seeker is being developed by Lockheed Martin
Infrared Imaging Systems (LMIRIS) of Lexington, Mass.
On Oct 2nd US Secretary of the Army Louis Caldera visited the Air
Defense Artillery Center for an overview of the new role
of the Army Missile Defense Command and a briefing on the
Theater High Altitude Area Defense system. He also spoke at
several functions, including Fort Bliss' Hispanic Heritage
observance.
Caldera met with soldiers of a THAAD battery and talked about
the importance of this new air defense technology.
"I want to take a moment to underscore my tremendous support
for THAAD," Caldera said. "If we had THAAD available today
we would deploy it to protect our forces in Korea and
everywhere else. We would send them throughout the world.
With the missile launches that have happened in Pakistan, Korea
and China, it becomes more important than ever that we be able
to provide that kind of protection to our soldiers in the field."
Caldera praised the soldiers assigned to the THAAD system.
"The soldiers I visited today are ready to put it in the field,"
Caldera said. "They are trained and ready to use it."
Caldera also counseled patience with the development problems
THAAD has faced.
"While there have been some failures as we go about this,
remember there were failures when the Wright brothers first tried
to put an aircraft into the air," Caldera said. "There were failures
when we first tried to put men on the moon. The thing you have
to do is learn from those mistakes, go back and improve
constantly."
Caldera attributed some of the problems to a pressing need for
the THAAD system that had greatly accelerated its development,
thus cutting down on the time available for the normal testing new
weapon systems go through.
(From report in: Florida Today - Space Online).
WASHINGTON - Despite growing concerns over the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology in Asia and the Pacific Rim, the Senate Wednesday narrowly shot down a renewed Republican effort to accelerate the building of a national missile defense system.
The 59-41 vote fell one short of the 60 needed to overcome Democratic opposition and accelerate the legislation.
All 55 Senate Republicans voted for the legislation, but they needed five supporting Democrats.
Only four crossed over: Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii; Daniel Akaka, D-Hawaii; Ernest F. Hollings, D-S.C.; and Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn.
The vote mirrored a similar effort by Republicans in May.
The Senate legislation would have ordered the implementation of a national missile defense system as soon as it is technologically feasible.
The existing program provides for three years of lead time once a potential threat has been identified.
Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who headed the Senate opposition, cited strong Pentagon apprehension about accelerating the missile defense plan, fearing it would jeopardize the nation's strategic stability with Russia.
He cautioned the Senate against overriding the nation's military.
"All we will do, if this bill passes, is to contribute to the threat of the proliferation of nuclear weapons on the soil of Russia," Levin said.
Gen. Henry H. Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, sent letters to senators urging a "no" vote.
Pentagon officials also said research is proceeding on a national missile defense system and that arbitrarily accelerating it now beyond existing technological capabilities is counterproductive.
The Clinton administration also chimed in against the legislation, citing possible friction with Russia, which is facing great internal turmoil from a collapsing economy.
The Republicans drew some of their crossover support from Hawaii's two Democratic senators, who fear their state is among the most vulnerable to the growing nuclear threat across the Pacific.
"We are facing substantial changes," Inouye said.
"More and more people are realizing that the Pacific is where the action is."
Concerns were heightened recently when North Korea tested a medium-range ballistic missile in the Pacific and might have put a satellite in orbit.
Intelligence officials have also said North Korea might secretly be building a huge underground nuclear reactor complex.
Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota wrote off the missile defense program as "the son of Star Wars," referring to President Reagan's failed attempt to erect a space-based missile-defense shield.
But Congress might not be done with it.
A similar version of the Republican bill is expected to arise in the House for debate later this month.
(See also: reports, videos and pictures from:
Daily News report;
Space on-line.
Space accidents cost lots of money. Some reports price the spy satellite blasted to smithereens on August 12 at $1.3 billion. The spy satellite destroyed in the 1993 Titan 4 launch explosion at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California was valued at $800 million. And then there's the cost of Lockheed Martin's Titan 4 rockets.
But more important is the massive loss of life that will occur as mishaps inevitably continue in the space program if it is not de-nuclearized and de-weaponized. August 18, 1998 was exactly a year before the day when NASA intends to have Cassini conduct an extremely dangerous "flyby" of Earth. Unless NASA can be stopped, it plans to have the probe and its 72.3 pounds of plutonium use the Earth's gravity to increase the velocity of Cassini so it can reach its final destination of Saturn. Cassini is supposed to come flying in at 42,300 miles per hour just 496 miles overhead. If there is a rocket misfire or other malfunction and the probe makes an "inadverent reentry" into the atmosphere, it will break up and plutonium rain down. NASA admits that, should that happen, "five billion of the estimated 7 to 8 billion world population at the time," says the statement, "could receive 99 percent or more of the radiation exposure." A "Safety Evaluation Report" for the Cassini mission says that a "flyby" accident would cause "several tens of thousands of latent cancer fatalities worldwide." Independent scientists say casualties could be much higher hundreds of thousands or millions dying.
A major effort is underway to get NASA to redirect the Cassini probe to the Sun rather than risk such a loss of life.
But if NASA can't be stopped and the Cassini "flyby" works there is still much more nuclear danger ahead. NASA is currently studying eight future space missions between 2000 and 2015 that will likely use nuclear-fueled electric generators.
These nuclear shots would be launched from Florida with the Titan 4 as a principle delivery vehicle.
Pressure from Lockheed Martin, which not only manufactures the Titan 4 but the plutonium systems, the nuclear-boosting U.S. Department of Energy and
the national nuclear labs have much to do with why NASA insists on the life-threatening use of nuclear power on space devices. Then there is the
military connection. The U.S. military wants to deploy spaceborne weaponry, especially lasers.
A 1996 Air Force Report states: "In the next two decades, new technologies will allow the fielding of space-based weapons of devastating effectiveness."
But these weapons need large amounts of power, and "_ a natural technology to enable high power is nuclear power in space."
Only modest amounts of electricity are produced by plutonium on space probes
745 watts on the Cassini mission to power instruments. This could be
generated by safe, solar photovoltaic cells even far from the sun. Indeed,
the European Space Agency is readying its Rosetta space probe to fly past
the orbit of Jupiter to rendezvous with a comet and using solar energy to
generate 500 watts instead of plutonium.
NASA, after seeing its budget drop with the end of the Apollo missions to the moon, got ever tighter with the Pentagon. The Pentagon would like to
deploy weaponry powered by nuclear systems in space and so NASA, seeking to stay in step with the military, insists on nuclear power on in space even if it kills us.
What can you do? Email Bruce Gagnon,
coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space and join the challenge to end this madness.
Log onto the Stop Cassini Earth Flyby web site.
You'll find petitions at the site and recommendations of where you can direct your protests.
The space program involves risks. Accidents will happen. But by including
nuclear power and moving to space weaponry, the risks are greatly expanded
to include the lives of people all over the world.
Further comment:
STOP PRESS ... On 28th August 1998, a second rocket (a Delta 3) exploded in the skies above Cape Canaveral.
From Hansard 27th October 1998
21st October 1998
from the Stop the Flyby Web Site, October 20th, 1998
DOE Contact:
Colette Brown, Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology (NE-50)
USDOE, 19901 Germantown Road
Germantown, MD 20874
FAX 301-903-1510
EMAIL Colette.Brown@HQ.DOE.GOV
by Earl Budin, M.D., Assoc. Clinical Prof. of Radiology, UCLA Medical Center
The Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) and the
U.S. Army have announced that the next flight test of the THAAD
system is expected to take place during the first quarter of Calendar
Year 1999.
by John Yaukey, Gannett News Service, September 10, 1998
from an article by Karl Grossman published on August 20, 1998 in the Orlando Weekly
An expanded version of what follows is posted at: http://www.nonviolence.org/noflyby/ref/kg980820.htm).
NASA claimed last year that the Titan 4 rocket used to loft the Cassini space probe was reliable. The explosion on launch of an identical Titan 4 rocket on August 12th (following the 1993 explosion in California of another Titan 4 rocket) demonstrates how lucky we were that the 72.3 pounds of plutonium oxide on Cassini stayed intact! There have now been two catastrophic accidents in the 25 Titan 4 launches. That's a one-in-12 severe accident rate. Reliable?
Not only does the explosion of the Titan 4A represent an excellent case against Cassini but the cargo was an Advanced Vortex satellite managed by the National Reconnaissance Office on behalf of the National Security Agency for order-of-battle analysis, and interception of civilian communications. The new Menwith Hill radomes are being built to support Vortex and Orion satellites. The satellites violate civil liberties and also help to implement the United States Space Command's Long Range Plan for 2020, which explicitly calls for U.S. domination of the planet, in violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.
Loring Wirbel
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