Missiles at Fylingdales?

HOW LIKELY?
However, are missiles really likely at Fylingdales? We can be fairly confident that the UK has been consulted about hosting an interceptor missile site. The US is currently keen to set up interceptor missile sites in Poland or the Czech Republic and has been lobbying both states hard, with both showing a willingness to host such sites. However, this does not mean that the UK and US have not entered in to unofficial discussions on the possibility of hosting interceptor missiles in the UK as well. Just as Tony Blair unofficially gave the nod for the use of the Fylingdales radar for Star Wars months before the UK government admitted to discussions (and indeed just as the same happened with the Iraq war) so it is safe to assume that such "unofficial" discussions have probably taken place.

We are sceptical however about the siting of missiles at Fylingdales. Not only is there no need to base missiles at Fylingdales, but it makes no sense to do so. Why locate the missile interceptor silos at the same place as the radar tracking facility (Fylingdales)? There is no operational reason for doing so - the two do not need to be close geographically. A missile interceptor base is a very different military and institutional facility - and a higher risk target. It is more suited to Lakenheath or Fairford. The creation of a missile silo facility at Fylingdales would require considerable destruction of National Park land and expansion of the base and its security fencing - something that would cause popular opposition amongst the local population and authorities (on top of that caused by the siting of missiles there at all).

TARGET
More importantly though, the siting of interceptor missiles at the same location as the tracking facility makes it possible to target and destroy two elements of the system with one attack. Star Wars sites based outside of the US homeland are perhaps easier targets than those based on US soil. They are the frontline of the system and targeting and destroying one such element could severely reduce the effectiveness of the system as a whole (ignoring for the moment the fact that the system is apparently ineffectual anyway in its current state). Disabling Fylingdales for example would make spotting and tracking missiles fired from North Africa or the Middle East harder (though not impossible, since the Star Wars sysem will eventually employ a host of different spotting and tracking systems). Disabling Fylingdales and a set of 6 - 12 interceptor missiles based in the same place in one strike not only means you may disable or slow down the Missile Defence system but that, even if it still works, you have reduced the number of interceptor missiles.

Fylingdales may be tempting as a site for interceptor missie silos because it is not an easy place to demonstrate at, being as it is on the top of the cold, wet North York Moors. But would that in itself be enough to convince the US or UK military that they should risk losing two elements of the same system in one attack?

THE GOVERNMENT SAYS ...
On 28th October 2004, in response to a question from Menzies Campbell MP, Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon said "There have been no discussions between Ministers or officials of either government about the stationing of interceptor missiles in the UK. The Government have not yet decided whether the UK requires its own missile defence, and our discussions with the US on missile defence matters do not therefore involve specific architectures or basing assumptions." Sadly this tells us very little as, on Missile Defence, as the initial Fylingdales decision showed, the word of Geoff Hoon cannot be trusted.

WOULD IT WORK?
It is worth noting that missiles sited at Fylingdales would not be able to function as a boost phase intercept system (attacking the aggressor missile early on as it boosts itself upwards) as they would be positioned too far from the perceived launch sites. The missiles would instead form part of a midcourse intercept system (intercepting missiles in the mid part of their journey, whilst outside the atmosphere) but the effectiveness of the midcourse intercept system is questioned by many since the aggressor could deploy countermeasures such as decoys (which are released by the missile in the midcourse phase and make follow the missile's trajectory, making it hard to pinpoint the real warhead). Even if the incoming missiles can be intercepted in the midcourse phase the UK government must be question where the debris of such an intercept would land ? An midcourse phase intercept by missiles fired from Fylingdales could lead to debris landing in the UK, depending on where the intercept took place and what kind of intercept was deployed.

One other point is that scientific studies such as those of the Union of Concerned Scientists and the American Physical Society seem to indicate that boost phase intercept will be too difficult and may not be able to prevent the missiles reaching the US. The only known way of destroying an ICBM is to use nuclear tipped interceptors. Although the generation of an electromagentic pulse from this type of missile may cause problems for friendly electronic systems, if the encounter is carried out far enough away it might not effect systems based on the US mainland. Could this imply that UK hosting of interceptor missiles might mean the hosting of nuclear-tipped missiles for attacking objects in space?

REACTIONS
Russia reacted to the Independent on Sunday's article with astonishment and anger stating that the move would "represent a disturbing new step" in international relations and posed a "possible threat to the security of Russia". Such statements add fuel to concerned groups like Yorkshire CND's much repeated point that the US Ballistic Missile Defence system already poses threats to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.

Further, the basing of missiles on UK soil would dramatically increase our involvement in the system and would make whichever area hosts them a considerably greater target for attack.

Yorkshire CND is currently sceptical about the basing of Star Wars missiles at Fylingdales but that does not mean we should not be concerned about the potential, that it won't happen or that if it does happen we won't be ready to act. We shall have to wait and see if any area of the UK is chosen to host Star War missile silos. In the mean time we will continue to call for openness and acountability from the UK Government and will resist all attempts at further involvement in Star Wars.

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